October 14, 2024 7:55am

Sector earnings or LPS (loss-per-share) season is just ahead …

Pre-open indications: 3 Positive and 4 Negative Indications

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

“Despite the market climbing to new heights, investors remain anxious against a backdrop of a closely-contested presidential election in three weeks, suddenly rising Treasury yields, uncertainty about the pace of Federal Reserve policy easing and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.” <CNBC>

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.18% or (-79 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.14% or (+8 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.26% or (+53 points)

  • Stock futures were mixed Monday, 10,14.
  • European markets were lower,
  • Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Friday: The Dow closed UP +409.74 points or +0.97%, the S&P closed UP +34.98 points or +0.61% while the Nasdaq closed UP +60.89 points or +0.33%

  • Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
  • “Stocks benefited from data that alleviated fears that inflation was not cooling off quickly enough. That included a cooler-than-expected September producer price index reading after the consumer price index increased slightly more than expected. The findings signaled that the Federal Reserve may in fact attain a soft-landing scenario and reach its 2% goal, which Goldman Sachs economists think upcoming September inflation data may already show.” <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Bond market closed

  • September retail sales and Sept. industrial production figures are out Thursday, followed by Sept. housing starts and building permits Friday.

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “cell and gene therapy sector ascends, finally. Thank you, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs; yet there is more risk going forward … as earnings season releases are coming and capital market access is limited. However, “When I write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. " … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13654

 

Q43/24: 2 positive and 7 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP closed up +$1.46 with a positive +$0.25 or +0.53% aftermarket

Moderna (MRNA) closed up +$1.59 after Thursday’s -$2.03 after Wednesday’s +$0.4 with a positive +$0.15 or +0.26% pre-open

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.60 with a positive +$0.49 or +4.95% aftermarket.

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$5.70 after Thursday’s +$7.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s -$1.22 with a negative -$0.22 or -0.08% aftermarket

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$1.69 after Thursday’s -$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$0.13 with a negative -$0.22 or -0.89% aftermarket

Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$0.23 with a negative -$0.02 or -0.74% aftermarket

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.79 after Thursday’s +$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.24 with a negative -$0.01or -0.05% aftermarket

 

The BOTTOM LINE: vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button

As the cell and gene therapy sector popped on Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes after a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.

As I wrote LAST Thursday: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliner, 2 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 -Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.