Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: a follow through session from the trough after October’s start

October 14, 2024 4:39pm

Sector is abuzz in Monday's trading session showcasing an upside rush

Never leave an investor uninformed!

I wouldn’t be surprising, especially in the last 3 to 4 weeks before an election — to see more volatility

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Monday: The Dow closed UP +201.36 points or +0.47%, the S&P closed UP +44.72 points or +0.77% while the Nasdaq closed UP +159.75 points or +0.87%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Monday is Columbus Day in the U.S., thus no key economic releases because of the federal holiday

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliners, 15 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats

3 positive closes out of 10 October sessions

Metrics: Monday, the IBB was up +0.08 % and the XBI was up +0.42% while the VIX was down -0.72 points or -3.52% at 19.74

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button. Sector earnings or LPS (loss-per-share) season is just ahead” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13655

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: Q4/24

3 positive and 7 negative sessions

Q3/24

September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 10):

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.00 after Friday’s +$5.70),
Moderna (MRNA -$0.58 after Friday’s +$1.59),
AxoGen (AXGN -$0.46 after Friday’s +$1.11),
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.16 after Friday’s +$1.84)
Mesoblast (MESO -$0.15),
Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.05),

Fate Therapeutics (DATE -$0.04),
Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.015),
uniQure (QURE -$0.01),
bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.0027),

Flat (4):

Caribou Biosciences
Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
Homology Medicine (FIXX)
Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 21):

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.87 after Friday’s +$1.69),
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.09 after Friday’s +$1.23),
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.98 after Friday’s +$1.42),
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.93 after Friday’s +$0.79
BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.84),
Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.79 after Friday’s +$1.11),
Vericel (VCEL +$0.40 after Friday’s +$1.60),
Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.36),
Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.31),
Sage therapeutics (SAGE +$0.22)

The BOTTOM LINE: I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

Monday cell and gene therapy sector rode the tailwind to a new high.

Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.

After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3^rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:

10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
10/11 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session:

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)
Friday: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.