October 15, 2024 4:30pm

Sector tuned positive late in the session after a neutral start and with a negative dive then an out-of-the-blue positive close

As Q3 earnings season is about to begin, uncertainty looms, raising questions about its impact on share pricing performance

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -324.60 points or -0.75%, the S&P closed DOWN -44.58 points or -0.76% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -187.10 points or -1.01%

  • Despite Tuesday’s declines, the 3 major averages are higher on the month and seem on track to overcome a historically volatile season.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index turned in a reading of -11.9 on the month for general business conditions, a decline of 23.4 points from September and well below the 3.0 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The index measures the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against contraction.
  • new orders plunged to -10.2 while shipments tumbled to -2.7 as both indexes showed declines of around 20 points. Also, the prices paid and received indexes both showed upticks, though employment rose 9.8 points to 4.1. While the headline index slumped, the expectations index for activity six months ahead rose to 38.7, an increase of 8.1 points.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 15 incliners, 15 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector fell Tuesday, taking a breather from a 2-session “uplift” as traders waited the coming earnings reports.
  • 3 positive closes out of 11 October sessions

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.08% and the XBI was up +0.22% while the VIX was up +0.82 points or +4.16% at 20.52

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 4 positive and 7 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 14):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.79),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.51),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.42 after Monday’s -$0.58),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.31 after Monday’s -$0.15),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.25 after Monday’s +$1.87),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.14 after Monday’s +$0.40),
  • Agenus (AGEN (AGEN -$0.07),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.07),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.06 after Monday’s -$0.05),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.055 after Monday’s -$0.015),

Flat (5):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • uniQure NV (QURE)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.04 after Monday’s -$1.00),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.93 after Monday’s +$1.09),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.73 after Monday’s +$0.79),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.56 after Monday’s +$0.36),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.53 after Monday’s -$0.16)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.52),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.22 after Monday’s +$0.98),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.12),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.11),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.10 after Monday’s +$0.31),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I CONTINUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Bad news: Tome Biosciences' (private) eliminated all the jobs at its Watertown facility and Verve Therapeutics' (VERV) decision to halt enrollment in its lead gene editing medicine.

Cell and gene therapy sector equities popped again … with Tuesday and Monday’s cell and gene therapy sector riding the tailwind to a new high.

  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 3rd week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

 

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.