October 16, 2024 4:41pm

“Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” are in the house

New highs and I say BYE as news of advanced trial is empty in the barrel

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +337.02 points or +0.79%, the S&P closed UP +27.20 points or +0.47% while the Nasdaq closed UP +51.49 points or +0.28%

  • The Dow and S&P 500 both slipped from their recent records on Tuesday, falling more than -0.7% each. The Nasdaq fell -1%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.4% in September following a 0.2% decrease the previous month. Lower fuel prices in September more than offset higher nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices fell 0.7% in September, after declining 0.9% in August.
  • Prices for U.S. exports fell -0.7% in September following a decline of -0.9% the previous month. U.S. export prices decreased -1.1% for Q3/24, the largest 3-month drop since December 2023. Lower prices for nonagricultural exports in September more than offset higher agricultural export prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined -2.1% over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since January 2024.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector Jumped again for the 4th session

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.40% and the XBI was up +0.95% while the VIX was down -1.08 points or -5.24% at 19.56

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 5 positive and 7 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (4 of 4):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.68 after Tuesday’s -$0.14 after Monday’s +$0.40),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.49 after Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.21 after Tuesday’s -$0.15),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.10 after Tuesday’s $0.00)

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$13.19 after Tuesday’s +$4.04 after Monday’s -$1.00),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.79),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.73 after Monday’s +$0.79),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.95 after Tuesday’s +$0.22 after Monday’s +$0.98),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.83),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.58 after Tuesday’s +$0.93 after Monday’s +$1.09),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.52),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.10 after Monday’s +$0.31),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.41),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.38 after Tuesday’s +$0.52),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

Cell and gene therapy sector equities ascended on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.

  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th  week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to and will be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/16 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Voyager therapeutics (VYGR)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.