October 17, 2024 7:33am
My last night’s quote, “New highs and I say BYE as news of advanced trial is empty in the barrel.”
Breaking News:Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) initiates a “strategic reorganization” (cuts 165 or 33% of employees and approximately 55% of the R&D workforce including changes to the leadership team) to support the ongoing launch of ZURZUVAE in postpartum depression and focus pipeline development efforts ahead of a clinical study readout for dalzanemdor in Huntington’s Disease expected later this year. SAGE expects a non-recurring charge of approximately $26 M to $28 M associated with the reorganization, primarily incurred in Q4/24.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Never leave an investor uninform
Dramatic upside moves usually get creamed
As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!
Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.17% or (+74 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.42% or (+24 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.81% or (+164 points)
- U.S. stock futures rose a tad on Thursday, 10/17,
- European markets were higher,
- Asia-Pacific markets fell
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +337.02 points or +0.79%, the S&P closed UP +27.20 points or +0.47% while the Nasdaq closed UP +51.49 points or +0.28%
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
Economic Data Docket: weekly jobless claims, September’s retail sales due and industrial and manufacturing production data
- 8:30 am Initial jobless claims
- 8:30 am U.S. retail sales Sept.
- 8:30 am Retail sales minus autos Sept.
- 9:15 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
- 9:15 am Industrial production Sept.
- 9:15 am Capacity utilization Sept.
- 10:00 am Business inventories Aug.
- 10:00 am Home builder confidence index Oct.
Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “uncertainty and hesitation. Sector tuned positive late in the session after a neutral start and with a negative dive then an out-of-the-blue positive close. As Q3 earnings season is about to begin, uncertainty looms, raising questions about its impact on share pricing performance.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13657
Q43/24: 5 positive and 7 negative closes
Q3/24:
- September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
- August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context
I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.
A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to all that data with today’s expectation while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open … it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.
The BOTTOM LINE: vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button
Cell and gene therapy sector equities popped again … Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
- After popping on Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes after a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.
As I wrote: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!
Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:
- 10/16 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
- 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
- 10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliner, 2 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/7 -Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
- 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
- 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats
Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.
- Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
- I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
- Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
- As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!
Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
