October 17, 2024 4:36pm

As I wrote, “New highs and I say BYE as news of cutbacks and earnings season release’ dates

Trader angst centers on a bunch of unknowns: The focus on interest rates, geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US presidential election and Q3 earnings reports.

Be portfolio patient, as usual earnings season effect share pricing

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +161.35 points or +0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -1 points or -0.02% while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.53 points or +0.04%

  • Will strong economic data ease fears of a potential recession?

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • September’s retail sales figures’ monthly spending increased by 0.4%, while the consensus estimate called for 0.3%. Sales excluding autos shot up by 0.5%, much hotter than the 0.1% forecast.
  • Jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 12 were also lower than expected.
  • According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), confidence among home builders rose to a four-month high in October.
  • Mortgage rates rose for the third consecutive week, according to the latest data out from Freddie Mac, pushing the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to 6.44%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dumped after jumping 4 positive sessions in a row

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -0.48% and the XBI was down -0.95% while the VIX was down -0.56 points or -2.86% at 19.01

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 5 positive and 8 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 24):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.80 after Wednesday’s +$13.19, Tuesday’s +$4.04 and Monday’s -$1.00),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.33),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.64),
  • Beam therapeutics (BEAM -$2.34),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.22),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.93 after Wednesday’s +$1.02, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.79),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.93 after Wednesday’s +$0.58, Tuesday’s +$0.93 and Monday’s +$1.09),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.71 after Wednesday’s +$0.95 after Tuesday’s +$0.22 after Monday’s +$0.98),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.38 and Tuesday’s +$0.52),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.67 after Wednesday’s +$1.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.79),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 10):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.21 and Tuesday’s -$0.15),
  • Intellia Therapeutics NTLA +$0.40),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.25),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.10 and Tuesday’s $0.00)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.49 after Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.10),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.01),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.008),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.0047),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Be wary as volatility may lie ahead the sector and the market

  • As the Russell 2000, the small-cap index has reached its highest level in 3 years, signaling a potential down drift in market dynamics…?

 

I CONTINUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities dived on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.

  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

\Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/17 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: Mesoblast (MESO), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Voyager therapeutics (VYGR)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.