October 18, 2024 8:05am

Still, concerns about the Middle East conflict, uncertainty about the outcome of the US presidential election and upcoming earnings slate, should prompt the sector’s LPS (loss-per-share) earnings share pricing outcomes to slip

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.11% or (-46 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.22% or (+13 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.51% or (+104 points)

  • Stock futures were mixed – Dow down and with the S&P and Nasdaq fluctuating to the upside  Friday as investors looked to end the week on a high note,
  • European markets were higher as investors digested the European Central Bank’s (ECB)back-to-back interest rate cut, as well as fresh economic data and earnings,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +161.35 points or +0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -1 points or -0.02% while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.53 points or +0.04%

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat

All 3 indexes are tracking for their 6th straight positive week. That would mark the longest weekly winning streaks in 2024 for both the Dow and S&P 500.

Economic Data Docket: Sept. Housing starts, Building permits and Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “sector was sold into highs. As I wrote, “New highs and I say BYE as news of cutbacks and earnings season release’ dates. Trader angst centers on a bunch of unknowns: The focus on interest rates, geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US presidential election and Q3 earnings reports. Be portfolio patient, as usual earnings season effect share pricing.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13661

 

Q43/24: 5 positive and 8 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Again, “I remain a skeptic, as electronic trading remains the impetus to, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector getting artificial low” … as proven in past sessions!

I’m still waiting until earnings show their “back” to conclude BUYs!

  • Although, I like Moderna (MRNA) as it will take a hit with earnings but another shot and recommended covid needed, while cancer program could be a BIG impetus. <a driblet, this a.m., -- +$0.28 in pre-market>

 

The BOTTOM LINE: vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button

Cell and gene therapy sector equities dive negative on Thursday after popping positive … Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high

  • After popping on Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes after a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.

As I wrote: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/17 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliner, 2 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 -Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moves forward through October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.