October 18, 2024 4:47pm

“Uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” came to visit, left and came back for more

Tailwinds help until they don’t, as earnings season headwinds are on their way

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +36.86 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed UP +23.20 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +115.94 points or +0.63%

  • The 3 major averages are accumulating their 6th straight positive week

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Housing starts and building permits both declined in September, private-owned authorizations for permits totaled 1.428 M, 2.9% below the previous month’s downwardly revised total and down 5.7% from a year ago. The Dow Jones consensus had been looking for 1.45 M permits. On starts, new construction totaled 1.354 M a 0.5% decrease from the upwardly revised August figure, though narrowly above the 1.35 M estimate.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 22 incliners, 10 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector jumped Friday after Thursday’s dive after 4 positive sessions in a row

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +0.15% and the XBI was up +0.53% while the VIX was down -1.08 points or -5.65% at 18.03

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 6 positive and 8 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (12 of 12):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.82 after Thursday’s -$3.80, Wednesday’s +$13.19, Tuesday’s +$4.04 and Monday’s -$1.00),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.72 after Thursday’s -$2.64),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.70 after Thursday’s -$2.34),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.51 after Thursday’s -$0.93, Wednesday’s +$0.58, Tuesday’s +$0.93 and Monday’s +$1.09),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.21 after Thursday’s +$0.19, Wednesday’s -$0.10 and Tuesday’s $0.00)
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.18 after Thursday’s +$0.25),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08 after Thursday’s -$1.22),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.05),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.045),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.015)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01)
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01),

Flat (2):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 21):

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.67 after Thursday’s -$0.93, Wednesday’s +$1.02, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.79),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.19 after Thursday’s -$0.67, Wednesday’s +$1.32 and Tuesday’s -$0.79),
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.99),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.63 after Thursday’s -$0.71, Wednesday’s +$0.95, Tuesday’s +$0.22 and Monday’s +$0.98),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.50),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.49 after Thursday’s +$0.19, Wednesday’s -$0.49 and Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.40),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.36),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.28 after Thursday’s -$0.69, Wednesday’s +$0.38 and Tuesday’s +$0.52),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.19),

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +161.35 points or +0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -1 points or -0.02% while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.53 points or +0.04%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • September’s retail sales figures’ monthly spending increased by 0.4%, while the consensus estimate called for 0.3%. Sales excluding autos shot up by 0.5%, much hotter than the 0.1% forecast.
  • Jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 12 were also lower than expected.
  • According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), confidence among home builders rose to a four-month high in October.
  • Mortgage rates rose for the third consecutive week, according to the latest data out from Freddie Mac, pushing the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to 6.44%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dumped after jumping 4 positive sessions in a row

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -0.48% and the XBI was down -0.95% while the VIX was down -0.56 points or -2.86% at 19.01

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +337.02 points or +0.79%, the S&P closed UP +27.20 points or +0.47% while the Nasdaq closed UP +51.49 points or +0.28%

  • The Dow and S&P 500 both slipped from their recent records on Tuesday, falling more than -0.7% each. The Nasdaq fell -1%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.4% in September following a 0.2% decrease the previous month. Lower fuel prices in September more than offset higher nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices fell 0.7% in September, after declining 0.9% in August.
  • Prices for U.S. exports fell -0.7% in September following a decline of -0.9% the previous month. U.S. export prices decreased -1.1% for Q3/24, the largest 3-month drop since December 2023. Lower prices for nonagricultural exports in September more than offset higher agricultural export prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined -2.1% over the past year, the largest 12-month decrease since January 2024.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector Jumped again for the 4th session

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.40% and the XBI was up +0.95% while the VIX was down -1.08 points or -5.24% at 19.56

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -324.60 points or -0.75%, the S&P closed DOWN -44.58 points or -0.76% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -187.10 points or -1.01%

  • Despite Tuesday’s declines, the 3 major averages are higher on the month and seem on track to overcome a historically volatile season.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index turned in a reading of -11.9 on the month for general business conditions, a decline of 23.4 points from September and well below the 3.0 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The index measures the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against contraction.
  • New orders plunged to -10.2 while shipments tumbled to -2.7 as both indexes showed declines of around 20 points. Also, the prices paid and received indexes both showed upticks, though employment rose 9.8 points to 4.1. While the headline index slumped, the expectations index for activity six months ahead rose to 38.7, an increase of 8.1 points.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 15 incliners, 15 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector fell Tuesday, taking a breather from a 2-session “uplift” as traders waited the coming earnings reports.
  • 3 positive closes out of 11 October sessions

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.08% and the XBI was up +0.22% while the VIX was up +0.82 points or +4.16% at 20.52

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +201.36 points or +0.47%, the S&P closed UP +44.72 points or +0.77% while the Nasdaq closed UP +159.75 points or +0.87%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Monday is Columbus Day in the U.S., thus no key economic releases because of the federal holiday

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliners, 15 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats

  • 3 positive closes out of 10 October sessions

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.08 % and the XBI was up +0.42% while the VIX was down -0.72 points or -3.52% at 19.74

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Pricing sustainability was in the back pocket, reachable but takes a twist!

As I wrote, I thought "up/downs were an exercise and this move is here to stay"!

 I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

Cell and gene therapy sector equities jumped on Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.

  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on the previous Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/18 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/17 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Thursday: Mesoblast (MESO), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and AxoGen (AXGN)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.