October 21, 2024 7:45am

A week before cell and gene therapy sector earnings season releases …

Are we at a risk as LPS (loss-per-share), EPS (earnings-per-share) consensus and curbed and upcoming expectation of share pricing?

News: REGENXBIO (RGNX +$0.10 pre-market) announced positive data from the P2 fellow eye sub-study evaluating the subretinal delivery of ABBV-RGX-314 in patients with bilateral wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD). "The majority of … patients with wet AMD eventually have bilateral disease and face a substantial treatment burden with frequent lifelong injections in both eyes.”

Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive, 3 Negative and 1 Sell inti Strength Indications

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.22% or (-100 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.35% or (-20 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.61% or (-126 points)

  • U.S. stock futures fell slightly on Monday,
  • European markets were lower,
  • Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Friday: The Dow closed UP +36.86 points or +0.09%, the S&P closed UP +23.20 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +115.94 points or +0.63%

  • Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats

For the week, the Dow was up +1%, the S&P 500 +0.09% followed by the Nasdaq of + 0.8%.

Economic Data Docket: indicators identified and Fed talking heads

  • 8:55 am                Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks                                                
  • 10:00 am             U.S. leading economic indicators              
  • 5:05 pm               Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks                                                     
  • 6:40 pm               San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “I thought up/downs were an exercise. “Uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” came to visit, left and came back for more. Tailwinds help until they don’t, as earnings season headwinds are on their way” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13663

 

Q43/24: 6 positive and 8 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)         

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.67 after Thursday’s -$0.93, Wednesday’s +$1.02, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.79 with a neutral indication

 

Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)            

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) Closed down-$0.70 after Thursday’s -$2.34 with a positive +$0.07 or +0.30% aftermarket
  • REGENXBIO (RGNX) closed up +$0.50 (above in news) with a positive +$0.55 or +4.95% pre-market

 

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)            

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$0.82 after Thursday’s -$3.80, Wednesday’s +$13.19, Tuesday’s +$4.04 and Monday’s -$1.00 with a negative -$5.92 or -2% aftermarket
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$1.19 after Thursday’s -$0.67, Wednesday’s +$1.32 and Tuesday’s -$0.79 with a negative -$0.38 or -0.96% aftermarket
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$0.28 after Thursday’s -$0.69, Wednesday’s +$0.38 and Tuesday’s +$0.52 with a negative -$0.20 or -3.03% aftermarket

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I wrote last week “When it comes to short-term investing or trading; the trend is NOT your friend.”  Just wait a session and the direction will change from tailwinds to headwinds … or NOT!

Vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button

Cell and gene therapy sector equities, Friday climbed positive after dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high

  • After popping on Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes after a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday; October’s beginning.

As I wrote: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24:

  • 10/18 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/17 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliner, 2 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through September, October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.