Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: slam, bam; the sectors in the can

October 21, 2024 4:45pm

I don’t believe in current theme of stretched valuations; its underappreciation

But also, the lack of catalysts as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) “factors” coming into the equation doesn’t help

Never leave an investor uninformed!

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: a bubble waiting for a pin?… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13664

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -344.31 points or – 0.80%, the S&P closed DOWN -10.69 points or -0.18% while the Nasdaq closed UP +50.45 points or +0.27%

Indexes closed mixed ahead of the U.S. presidential election, rising geopolitical risks, which could also mean further rough waters for this market.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slid 0.5% in September, more than expected, due in part to a deteriorating global manufacturing picture. Economists surveyed had been looking for a reading of -0.3%, which would have matched August’s downwardly revised decline.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

Cell and gene therapy sector dived negative Monday…. after jumping positive Friday after Thursday’s dive with 4 positive sessions in a row

Metrics: Monday, the IBB was down -1.32% and the XBI was down -1.64% while the VIX was up +0.36 points or +2.05% at 18.40

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: Q4/24

7 positive and 9 negative sessions

Q3/24

September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 30):

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.22 after Friday’s -$0.82),
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.80 after Friday’s -$0.51),
Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.80 after Friday’s +$1.67),
Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.78 after Friday’s +$0.28)
Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.73 after Friday’s +$0.50),
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.68 after Friday’s +$1.19),
BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.62),
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.50 after Friday’s -$0.70),
Vericel VCEL -$0.48 after Friday’s +$0.99),
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.41 after Friday’s +$0.63)

Flat (1):

Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (4 of 4):

Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.40),
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.22 after Friday’s +$0.36)
uniQure NV (QURE +$0.18),
bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.006),

The BOTTOM LINE: What’s changed, the sector is down but …

As I had written, “Pricing sustainability was in the back pocket, reachable but takes a twist!” … again

I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

Cell and gene therapy sector equities dived on Monday …

After jumping on Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.

Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.

After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

Factoid: Indexes slipped on Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since July and investors braced for a packed week of top-tier earnings that could drive or drag on a record-setting rally.

Interest rate sensitive stocks like Real Estate dropped during the session as the 10-year Treasury moved up 10 basis points to 4.18%.
While, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan sees policymakers lowering interest rates "gradually". She cited an increased risk that the job market could worsen and a danger that inflation could still heat up again.

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5^th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage
Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.
I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:

10/21 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

10/18 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
10/17 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
10/16 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats

10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats

10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Monday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and uniQure NV (QURE
Friday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
Friday: Moderna (MRNA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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