October 22, 2024 4:38pm

It’s confidence that’s waning

But also, the lack of advancing clinical catalysts as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) “factors” coming into the equation doesn’t help

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -6.71 points or -0.02%, the S&P closed DOWN -2.78 points or -0.05% while the Nasdaq closed UP +33.12 points or +0.18%

  • Indexes closed mixed as stocks regained some momentum from double-and triple-digit losses

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Richmond Fed’s monthly manufacturing survey showed that 14% more companies reported contraction against expansion for the month. That was an improvement from the -21% in September and slightly better than the Dow Jones estimate for -15%.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived again negative although barely on Tuesday following Monday’s decline….

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.01% and the XBI was up +0.12% while the VIX was down -0.18 points or -0.98% at 18.19

 

As compared to Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -344.45 points or – 0.80%, the S&P closed DOWN -10.69 points or -0.18% while the Nasdaq closed UP +50.45 points or +0.27%

  • Indexes closed mixed ahead of the U.S. presidential election, rising geopolitical risks, which could also mean further rough waters for this market.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slid 0.5% in September, more than expected, due in part to a deteriorating global manufacturing picture. Economists surveyed had been looking for a reading of -0.3%, which would have matched August’s downwardly revised decline.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived negative Monday…. after jumping positive Friday after Thursday’s dive with 4 positive sessions in a row

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.32% and the XBI was down -1.64% while the VIX was up +0.36 points or +2.05% at 18.40

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • October - 7 positive and 10 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$2.52 after Monday’s -$0.80),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$1.47),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.78 after Monday’s -$0.73),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.47 after Monday’s +$0.40),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.41),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.41 after Monday’s -$0.50),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.40 after Monday’s -$0.62),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.40),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.23),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.47 after Monday’s -$4.22),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.86),
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.65 after Monday’s -$0.48),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.41),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.33 after Monday’s -$1.80),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.14),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.13),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.09),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.09),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.18),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What’s changed, the sector is down, not much …

As I had written, “Pricing sustainability was in the back pocket, reachable but takes a twist!” … again

I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities dived on Tuesday and Monday …

  • After jumping on Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/21 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/20 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • Last week ...
  • 10/18 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/17 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and uniQure NV (QURE

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.