October 23, 2024 7:54am

There's no question about it, In the short term, the cell and gene therapy sector is going to gyrate;

As elections and earnings are historically a catalyst for volatility in the sector

Pre-open Indications: 4 Positive and 2 Sell into Strength Indications

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.52% or (-223 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.25% or (-14 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.34% or (-69 points)

  • Stock futures fell on Wednesday while Treasury yields moved higher (3 basis points to 4.23%, reaching levels not seen since July),
  • European markets traded flat,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -6.71 points or -0.02%, the S&P closed DOWN -2.78 points or -0.05% while the Nasdaq closed UP +33.12 points or +0.18%

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat

Economic Data Docket: Existing home sales, Fed Beige Book and talking head - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks                                                 

               

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “forget sentiment, it’s confidence that’s waning.”

… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13666

 

Q43/24: 7 positive and 10 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

Sell into Strength Indications:

Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$4.47 after Monday’s -$4.22 Friday’s -$0.82, Thursday’s -$3.80, Wednesday’s +$13.19 and Tuesday’s +$4.04 with a neutral aftermarket
  • uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.18 with a neutral aftermarket

 

Positive Indications:

Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.41 after Monday’s -$0.50 after Friday’s-$0.70 after Thursday’s -$2.34 with a positive +$0.13 tr +0.57% aftermarket
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.41 with a positive +$0.48 or +1% aftermarket
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS0 closed down -$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.68, Friday’s +$1.19, Thursday’s -$0.67 and last Wednesday’s +$1.32 with a neutral aftermarket
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed down -$1.47 with a positive $0.06 or +0.97% aftermarket

 

The BOTTOM LINE: cell and gene therapy sector equities struggled Tuesday and Monday while negative although the advance/decline lines were less than Monday’s.

Ranking:

  • 10/21 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/20 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

Looking at the volatility index (VIX), the market is not only unsure about the election's outcome, but also how long it may take to even get a result.” <Rob Hocking, Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) head of product innovation >

Vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities closed negative on Tuesday and Monday …

  • After Friday climbed positive after dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
  • After popping on Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes
  • After a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday - October’s beginning.

 

As I wrote: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.