October 23, 2024 4:38pm
As market perception is struggling with headwinds weighing on sentiment
Gloom about the prospect of LPS (loss-per-share) upcoming earnings’ releases also drags on share pricing
Never leave an investor uninformed!
On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!
It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441
Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -409.94 points or -0.96%, the S&P closed DOWN -53.78 points or -0.92% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -296.48 points or -1.60%
- Indexes closed down falling sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow on pace for its worst day in over a month, as higher Treasury yields weighed on market sentiment.
- The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.25%, reaching its highest level since July 26. The 10-year note is up 44 basis points in October alone.
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
- Fed ‘Beige Book’ indicates ‘limited’ layoffs, more optimistic outlook. Economic activity over the past seven weeks has been “little changed” as consumers grew more price sensitive and the manufacturing sector retreated, according to the Fed’s periodic economic summary.
- September's existing home sales report showed sales dropped to 3.84 M units, falling short of the 3.88 M estimated and marking a 14-year low.
Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with12 incliners, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
- Cell and gene therapy sector dived again negative on Wednesday, Tuesday following Monday’s decline….
Metrics: Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.28% and the XBI was down -1.63% while the VIX was up +1.09 points or +5.99% at 19.29
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: Q4/24
- 7 positive and 11 negative sessions
Q3/24
- September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 23):
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.86),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.41),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.61 after Tuesday’s +$4.47 after Monday’s -$4.22),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.14 after Tuesday’s +$0.41),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.41 after Monday’s -$0.50),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.67 after Tuesday’s -$0.40 after Monday’s -$0.62),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.09),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.68),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.22 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.18),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.16),
Flat (3):
- Agenus (AGEN)
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Wednesday’s Closing Up (9 of 9):
- Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.63 after Tuesday’s -$2.52 after Monday’s -$0.80),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 after Monday’s -$0.48),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.33),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$1.47),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.17),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.78 after Monday’s -$0.73),
- Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.01),
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.0070),
- Precigen (PRGN +$0.0029)
The BOTTOM LINE: What’s changed, the sector is down, not much … as I had written, “Pricing sustainability was in the back pocket, reachable but takes a twist!” … yet again after thye again
- I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "
Cell and gene therapy sector equities dived on Tuesday and Monday …
- After jumping on Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
- Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
- After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.
Factoids: “The rally in stocks has stalled as investors debate how quickly the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates over the next year. Gloom about the prospect of rates staying higher for longer has dragged on bond prices in recent days, sending the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) to levels not seen since July. The yield rose again on Wednesday, hitting 4.24%.” <Yahoo Finance>
- Also, “Interest rate volatility has been front and center amid the recent choppiness in markets over the past couple days as investors debate whether recent economic data will prompt the Fed to hold rates higher for longer than initially anticipated.”
Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.
- FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage
Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.
I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
- Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!
Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:
- 10/23 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
- 10/22 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/21 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Wednesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL), and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
- Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
- Monday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and uniQure NV (QURE
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
- Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
- Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
