October 24, 2024 8:10am
There's no question about it, In the short term, the cell and gene therapy sector is a split buy/sell decision going forward
As headwinds, elections and earnings are historically a catalyst for increased volatility in the sector
Pre-open Indications: 4 Positive and 1 Negative Indications
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Never leave an investor uninform
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!
Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.10% or (-42 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.52% or (+30 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.98% or (+197 points)
- Futures are mixed yet the S&P and Nasdaq are escalating on Thursday, 1024,
- European stocks were slightly higher
- Asia Pacific markets mostly fell
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -409.94 points or -0.96%, the S&P closed DOWN -53.78 points or -0.92% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -296.48 points or -1.60%
- Wednesday marked the 3rd consecutive day of losses for both the Dow and the S&P 500. The 10-year Treasury yield has been marching higher this week, topping the 4.25% threshold on Wednesday at the high of the session. The run-up in yields has kept stocks under pressure as of late. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket:
- 8:30 am Initial jobless claims
- 8:45 am Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opening remarks
- 9:45 am S&P flash U.S. services PMI
- 9:45 am S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 am New home sales
Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “sector stalled, feeding into expectations. As market perception is struggling with headwinds weighing on sentiment. Gloom about the prospect of LPS (loss-per-share) upcoming earnings’ releases also drags on share pricing" … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13668
Q43/24: 7 positive and 11 negative closes
Q3/24:
- September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
- August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context
I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.
A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Positive Indications:
Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$0.47 with a positive +$0.110 or +2.51% pre-open indication
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.91 after Tuesday’s -$0.41, Monday’s -$0.50, Friday’s-$0.70 and last Thursday’s -$2.34 with a positive +$0.41 or +1.88% pre-open indication
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.14 with a positive +$0.17 or +0.85% pre-open
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$2.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.47, Monday’s -$0.41 with a positive +$0.63 or +1.37% aftermarket
Negative Indications:
Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +0.24 after Tuesday’s -$1.47 with a negative -$0.03 or +0.47% aftermarket
The BOTTOM LINE: cell and gene therapy sector equities struggles as market headwinds drains any share pricing growth
I am STILL … espousing the cheaper and oversold for … SOME pickups i.e., BUYS!
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
- 10/21 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/20 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
Looking at the volatility index (VIX), the market is not only unsure about the election's outcome, but also how long it may take to even get a result.” <Rob Hocking, Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) head of product innovation >
Vulnerabilities STILL exist … keep a buy ticket in one hand and a finger on the sell button
Consider the quote(s), Paul Hickey, the co-founder of Bespoke Investing Group, said that he wouldn’t read too much into the recent sell-off in stocks.
- He “cautioned that the market might experience a slight pullback after November’s U.S. presidential election. Still, he reassured that the market would find its footing after the matter.”
- Hickey cautioned that the market might experience a slight pullback after November’s U.S. presidential election. Still, he reassured that the market would find its footing after the matter.
- “You could be set up for the stage of disappointment once the election comes and [see a] sell the news reaction. But I don’t think it’s going to be anything too bad. The overall market backdrop is very good in terms of breadth, earnings, the economy, and the Fed is at the market’s back,” he said. <CNBC>
Cell and gene therapy sector equities closed negative on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday …
- After Friday climbed positive having dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
- After popping on Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes
- After a positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday - October’s beginning.
The week’s closings:
- 10/23 -Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
- 10/22 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
- 10/21 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
As I wrote: “One thought and warning ... If Israel hit/bomb the Iranian oil fields - all market BETS are ... OFF!
Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.
- Moving forward through October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
- I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
- Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
- As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!
Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
