October 24, 2024 4:39pm

Gloom about the prospect of LPS (loss-per-share) upcoming earnings’ releases also drags on share pricing

Markets also experiences more volatility as election comes closer and economic releases compound

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles: stock drops -$0.42 with 2 shares traded; Ponzi Scheme label is further pronounced and reinforced

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -140.59 points or -0.33%, the S&P closed UP +12.44 points or +0.21% while the Nasdaq closed UP +138.83 points or +0.76%

  • Indexes closed mixed again, as the Dow fell, for its first 4thday losing streak since June.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • New homes sold at a brisk pace in September while prices rose at adjusted annual rate of 738,000, up 4.1% from August’s downwardly revised total and a 6.3% increase from a year ago.
  • The S&P Global Flash US Composite indexes for the month showed a 55.3 reading, up slightly from September. On the manufacturing side, the index came in at 47.8, a reading still in contraction territory but a half point better than September and above the 47.5 forecast.
  • Jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 totaled a seasonally adjusted 227,000, down 15,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level.
  • Mortgage rates climbed for the 4th consecutive week. The average 30-year fixed interest rate crept up to 6.54%. Last week, it averaged 6.44%. 15-year mortgage rates also climbed to 5.71%, up from 5.63%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 19 incliners, 15 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived again negative on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday following Monday’s decline….

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -0.40% and the XBI was up +0.60% while the VIX was down -0.15 points or -0.78% at 19.09

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 7 positive and 11 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.09 as P2 “promising” results doesn’t materialize to share pricing),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.31 after Wednesday’s -$2.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.86),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.18 after Wednesday’s -$1.61 after Tuesday’s +$4.47 after Monday’s -$4.22),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.70),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.59),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.42 after Wednesday’s +$0.01),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.33 after Wednesday’s -$0.67 after Tuesday’s -$0.40 after Monday’s -$0.62),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.28 after Wednesday’s +$0.63 after Tuesday’s -$2.52 after Monday’s -$0.80),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.22 after Wednesday’s -$0.16),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.78 after Monday’s -$0.73),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.95 after Wednesday’s -$2.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.41),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.59 after Wednesday’s +$0.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 after Monday’s -$0.48),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.38 after Wednesday’s -$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.27 after Wednesday’s -$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.41 after Monday’s -$0.50),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.21 after Wednesday’s -$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.09),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.20),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.19),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.18),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.14 after Wednesday’s +$0.24 after Tuesday’s -$1.47),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.09),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.22 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.18),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What’s changed, the sector is down, yet again …

  • As I had written, “Pricing sustainability was in the back pocket, reachable but takes a twist!”

I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility and … fewer sector buy opportunities until the oversold are recognized ... post earnings releases!

Cell and gene therapy sector equities dived on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday …

  • After jumping on Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/24 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/23 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/22 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/21 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL), and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and uniQure NV (QURE

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.