October 25, 2024 4:54pm

As questions on investor appetite for risk surge as “Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” arrived in time to stimulate the Friday session.

I stubbornly anticipated that cell and gene therapy sector investment would recover. As I wrote this a.m., “Realize value should be a mantra with the need of the oversold to flip”

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) Chronicles: stock dropped Thursday -$0.42 with 2 shares and Friday popped +$0.06 also with 2 shares traded; Ponzi Scheme label is further pronounced and yet another reinforcing indication?

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -259.96 points or -0.61%, the S&P closed DOWN -1.74 points or -0.03% while the Nasdaq closed UP +103.12 points or +0.56%

  • Nasdaq touches new record, but rest of market struggles Friday
  • The 10-year Treasury yield notably cooled off from its 3-month highs after Wednesday’s 4.25% trading today at 4.21%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in the October 2024, up from 70.1 in September and above last October’s 63.8.
  • The Commerce Department said durable goods orders slid by 0.8 in September, matching a revised decrease in August.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 26 incliners, 7 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats

  • 1 pop after 4 flops in a hell of a week with a Friday ascension

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -0.08% and the XBI was down -0.10% while the VIX was up +1.30 points or +6.81% at 20.38

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

•              7 positive and 12 negative sessions

Q3/24

•              September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes

•              August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes

•              July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 17):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.83 after Thursday’s -$1.18, Wednesday’s -$1.61, Tuesday’s +$4.47 and Monday’s -$4.22),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.00),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.62 after Thursday’s -$1.31, Wednesday’s -$2.07 and Tuesday’s +$0.86),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.59 after Thursday’s +$1.95, Wednesday’s -$2.04, Tuesday’s -$0.47 and Monday’s -$0.41),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.54 after Thursday’s +$0.27, Wednesday’s -$0.92, Tuesday’s -$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.50),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.23 after Thursday’s -$0.16, Wednesday’s +$0.15, Tuesday’s -$0.78 and Monday’s -$0.73),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.17 after Thursday’s +$0.21, Wednesday’s -$0.47 and Tuesday’s +$0.09),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.16 after Thursday’s +$0.22 and Wednesday’s -$0.16),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.10),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.70),

Flat (3):

  • AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 15):

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$2.00 after Thursday’s -$0.28, Wednesday’s +$0.63, Tuesday’s -$2.52 after Monday’s -$0.80),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.88 after Thursday’s +$0.59, Wednesday’s +$0.45, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$0.48),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.42 after Thursday’s -$0.33, Wednesday’s -$0.67, Tuesday’s -$0.40 and Monday’s -$0.62),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.42 after Thursday’s +$0.38, Wednesday’s -$0.26, Tuesday’s -$0.32 and Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.29 after Thursday’s -$0.59),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.25 after Thursday’s +$0.18),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.18 after Thursday’s +$0.14, Wednesday’s +$0.24 and Tuesday’s -$1.47),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$ 0.16 after Thursday’s +$0.20),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.14 after Thursday’s +$0.09),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.12),

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN 140.59- points or -0.33%, the S&P closed UP +12.44 points or +0.21% while the Nasdaq closed UP +138.83 points or +0.76%

  • Indexes closed mixed again, as the Dow fell, for its first 4thday losing streak since June.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • New homes sold at a brisk pace in September while prices rose at adjusted annual rate of 738,000, up 4.1% from August’s downwardly revised total and a 6.3% increase from a year ago.
  • The S&P Global Flash US Composite indexes for the month showed a 55.3 reading, up slightly from September. On the manufacturing side, the index came in at 47.8, a reading still in contraction territory but a half point better than September and above the 47.5 forecast.
  • Jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 totaled a seasonally adjusted 227,000, down 15,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level.
  • Mortgage rates climbed for the 4th consecutive week. The average 30-year fixed interest rate crept up to 6.54%. Last week, it averaged 6.44%. 15-year mortgage rates also climbed to 5.71%, up from 5.63%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 19 incliners, 15 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived again negative on Wednesday, Tuesday following Monday’s decline….

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -0.40% and the XBI was up +0.60% while the VIX was down -0.15 points or -0.78% at 19.09

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -409.94 points or -0.96%, the S&P closed DOWN -53.78 points or -0.92% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -296.48 points or -1.60%

  • Indexes closed down falling sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow on pace for its worst day in over a month, as higher Treasury yields weighed on market sentiment.
  • The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.25%, reaching its highest level since July 26. The 10-year note is up 44 basis points in October alone.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Fed ‘Beige Book’ indicates ‘limited’ layoffs, more optimistic outlook. Economic activity over the past seven weeks has been “little changed” as consumers grew more price sensitive and the manufacturing sector retreated, according to the Fed’s periodic economic summary.
  • September's existing home sales report showed sales dropped to 3.84 M units, falling short of the 3.88 M estimated and marking a 14-year low.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 21 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived again negative on Wednesday, Tuesday following Monday’s decline….

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.28% and the XBI was down -1.63% while the VIX was up +1.09 points or +5.99% at 19.29

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -6.71 points or -0.02%, the S&P closed DOWN -2.78 points or -0.05% while the Nasdaq closed UP +33.12 points or +0.18%

  • Indexes closed mixed as stocks regained some momentum from double-and triple-digit losses

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Richmond Fed’s monthly manufacturing survey showed that 14% more companies reported contraction against expansion for the month. That was an improvement from the -21% in September and slightly better than the Dow Jones estimate for -15%.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived again negative although barely on Tuesday following Monday’s decline….

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.01% and the XBI was up +0.12% while the VIX was down -0.18 points or -0.98% at 18.19

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -344.45 points or – 0.80%, the S&P closed DOWN -10.69 points or -0.18% while the Nasdaq closed UP +50.45 points or +0.27%

  • Indexes closed mixed ahead of the U.S. presidential election, rising geopolitical risks, which could also mean further rough waters for this market.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slid 0.5% in September, more than expected, due in part to a deteriorating global manufacturing picture. Economists surveyed had been looking for a reading of -0.3%, which would have matched August’s downwardly revised decline.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived negative Monday…. after jumping positive Friday after Thursday’s dive with 4 positive sessions in a row

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.32% and the XBI was down -1.64% while the VIX was up +0.36 points or +2.05% at 18.40

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Hell of a week …

  • The Nasdaq hit an all-time high, mainly due to the massive jump in tech stocks.

As I had written, “Pricing sustainability was in the back pocket, reachable but takes a twist!”

I CONTIBUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities on Friday followed the week’s dive … after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s negative closes …

  • After jumping on last Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/25 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/24 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/23 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/22 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/21 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL) and BioLife Solutions
  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Vericel (VCEL), and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and uniQure NV (QURE

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Thursday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.