October 28, 2024 8:25am

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due of expectation versus consensus

Earnings this week: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 10/29 Tuesday, MiMedx (MDXG), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on 10/30 Wednesday, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 10/31 Thursday

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Positive and 1 Negative Indications

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

News: Merck (MRK) and Moderna  MRNA +$0.37 or +0.70% pre-open) initiated INTerpath-009, a pivotal P3 randomized clinical trial evaluating V940 (mRNA-4157), an investigational individualized neoantigen therapy (INT), in combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab), Merck’s anti-PD-1 therapy, as adjuvant treatment for patients with resectable Stage II, IIIA or IIIB (N2) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who did not achieve a pathological complete response (pCR) after receiving neoadjuvant KEYTRUDA plus platinum-based chemotherapy. Global recruitment in INTerpath-009 has begun, and the first patients have now started enrolling in Canada. BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. (BCLI+$0.18 or +9.14% pre-open), presented 2 posters featuring NurOwn® (MSC-NTF0 or debamestrocel) The posters 'Debamestrocel Long-Term Benefits on Survival and Neurodegeneration in ALS Expanded Access Program' and 'An Overview of The P3b Clinical Trial of Debamestrocel in ALS' highlight the results achieved with ALS patients who participated in the Expanded Access Program (EAP) for NurOwn and summarize the details of BCLI's upcoming P3b trial in ALS. CORXEL and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) +3.32 or +12.28%) Announce Positive Topline Data from China P3 Presbyopia Trial of LNZ100 Primary endpoint was met with 74% of participants dosed with LNZ100 achieving three-lines or greater improvement at 3 hours post treatment Primary endpoint was met with 74% of participants dosed with LNZ100 achieving three-lines or greater improvement at 3 hours post treatment and maintaining their optimal distance visual acuity (i.e., not losing 5 or more letters). The difference in efficacy was statistically significant in the LNZ100 treatment group compared to the vehicle group (p<0.0001) Primary endpoint was met with 74% of participants dosed with LNZ100 achieving 3-lines or greater improvement at 3 hours post treatment and maintaining their optimal distance visual acuity (i.e., not losing 5 or more letters). The difference in efficacy was statistically significant in the LNZ100 treatment group compared to the vehicle group (p<0.0001) and maintaining their optimal distance visual acuity (i.e., not losing 5 or more letters). The difference in efficacy was statistically significant in the LNZ100 treatment group compared to the vehicle group (p<0.0001)

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.33% or (+138 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.46% or (+27 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.61% or (+125 points)

  • U.S. equity futures jumped On Monday, 10/28,
  • European markets slipped,
  • Asia Pacific markets were mixed

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -259.96 points or -0.61%, the S&P closed DOWN -1.74 points or -0.03% while the Nasdaq closed UP +103.12 points or +0.56%

  • After last full week’s sector losses, it’s time for some “moves yet earnings season begins to further dilute share pricing?

Economic Data Docket: slow day - Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, October (-9 expected, -9 prior), big week

 

Friday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “Cell and gene therapy equities struggled all week. As questions on investor appetite for risk surge as “Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” arrived in time to stimulate the Friday session. I stubbornly anticipated that cell and gene therapy sector investment would recover. As I wrote this a.m., “Realize value should be a mantra with the need of the oversold to flip.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13672

 

Q43/24: 7 positive and 12 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

My outlook, Positive Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$8.83 after Thursday’s -$1.18, Wednesday’s -$1.61. Tuesday’s +$4.47 and last Monday’s -$4.22 with a positive +$0.64 or +0.22% aftermarket

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed -$0.54 after Thursday’s +$0.27, Wednesday’s -$0.92, Tuesday’s -$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.50 with a +$0.27 or +1.25% aftermarket

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.59 after Thursday’s +$1.95, Wednesday’s -$2.04, Tuesday’s -$0.47 and last Monday’s -$0.41 with a positive +$0.04 or +0.08% pre-market

Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) closed up (Fridy) $2.00 with a positive +$3.32 or 12.39% pre-open

Moderna (MRNA) closed up +).29 with a positive +$0.37 or +0.70% pre-open indication based on news (IN title)

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.18 after Thursday’s +$0.14, Wednesday’s +0.24, Tuesday’s -$1.47 with a positive +$0.24 or +3.50% pre-market

 

My outlook, Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday and last Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.25 after Thursday’s +$0.18 with a negative -$0.23 or -3.85% aftermarket

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: get some for a few sessions only as earnings begin and clean the box!

Cell and gene therapy sector equities continued its dive from Monday through Friday as market headwinds drained share pricing growth.

Cell and gene therapy sector equities closed negative on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday …

  • After last Friday climbed positive having dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
  • After popping on the previous Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes
  • After the previous, previous positive last Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday - October’s beginning.

 

I am STILL … espousing the cheaper and oversold for … SOME pickups i.e., BUYS!

  • Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/21 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/20 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • Moving forward through October and a few weeks of November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.