October 29, 2024 4:47pm

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported Q3/24 earnings, a net loss of -$96.3 or -$0.53 per share, revenue was $11 M with costs of -$5.3 M with a 2026 runway and a cash position of $569 M - cutting 33% of employees and 3+ senior executives (CFO, CTO, GC)

Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -154.52 points or -0.36%, the S&P closed UP +9.40 points or +0.16% while the Nasdaq closed UP +143.56 points or +0.78%

  • Indexes struggled as trading was mixed on Tuesday while job openings moved lower

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 7.44 million jobs open at the end of September, a decrease from the 7.86 million seen in August. August's figure was revised lower from the 8.04 million open jobs initially reported.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived after ascending

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.22% and the XBI was up +0.07% while the VIX was down -0.37 points or -1.87% at 19.43

 

As compared to: Monday: The Dow closed UP +273.17 points or +0.65%, the S&P closed UP +15.40 points or +0.27% while the Nasdaq closed UP +48.58 points or +0.26%

  • Indexes rose along with a cooling geopolitical situation also supported risk sentiment

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Traders are also watching for a slew of key economic data this week, including a preliminary reading of Q3 gross domestic product on Wednesday; the September personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, on expected Thursday; and the October jobs report due Friday.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 33 incliners, 0 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector ascended from the crypt 

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.87% and the XBI was up +1.43% while the VIX was down -0.59 points or -3% at 19.74

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 8 positive and 13 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.22 after Monday’s +$2.05),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.35),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.77 after Monday’s +$2.35),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.65 after Monday’s +$1.17),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.32),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.29 after Monday’s +$1.48),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.27 after Monday’s -$0.75),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.26),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.16 after Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.15)

Flat (2):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (11 of 11):

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.73 after Monday’s +$0.83),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.63),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.42 after Monday’s +$1.71),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.17 after Monday’s +$1.91),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.05),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.05),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.05),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.05),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.05),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.02 after Monday’s +$0.63)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.02 after Monday’s -$0.04),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Share pricing is trying to jump the cracks in the pavement – missing many to fall into the street!

  • The Nasdaq touched its 2nd all-time high in 3 days on Tuesday; while the cell and gene therapy sector traded lower
  • … With market volatility at elevated levels ahead of the U.S. Presidential election

Quote, “Traders also continued to keep an eye out on Treasury yields, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since July. There is more near-term choppiness ahead for the market with just five trading days left before the U.S. presidential election. While we aren’t looking for a bear market, our conviction remains high that we are poised for some downside volatility over the coming weeks.” <BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky>

  • investors should also be bracing for a rush of economic data that could put bets on a "soft landing" to the test.
  • In the forefront are the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the October jobs report — both seen as crucial to policymakers' decision on whether to cut interest rates at their November meeting.

I CONTINUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities closed negative on Tuesday after Monday's positive upside …

  • on Friday followed the week’s dive … after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s negative closes …
  • After jumping on last Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the Month of October and Q4/24 beginning:   

  • 10/29 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/28 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/25 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/24 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/23 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/22 - Last Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tuesday: BioLife Solutions, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Compass therapeutics CMPX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.