October 30, 2024 8:06am

Navigating earnings season with the election just one week away

Earnings: MiMedx (MDXG) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

 

Breaking: ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the estimate for 113,000. It was the best month for job creation since July 2023.The numbers counter expectations for a slowdown in October on the heels of two brutal hurricanes and strikes at Boeing and ports on the Eastern seaboard.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.22% or (-65 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.11% or (+6 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.11% or (+32 points)

  • Futures were mixed pre-open Wednesday, 10/30,
  • European markets were lower,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as investors assess Australia inflation data

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -154.52 points or -0.36%, the S&P closed UP +9.40 points or +0.16% while the Nasdaq closed UP +143.56 points or +0.78%

“Investors are anticipating GDP (gross domestic product. The report is expected to show that GDP grew at a 3.1% annualized pace in the third quarter. That would be just 0.1% point above the previous period if accurate, and would be the 10th straight quarter of expansion. It’s also expected to show inflation moving closer to or coming out below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.” <CNBC>

The cell and gene therapy sector … “Share pricing is trying to jump the cracks in the pavement – missing many to fall into the street! As …The Nasdaq touched its 2nd all-time high in 3 days on Tuesday; while the cell and gene therapy sector traded lower… With market volatility at elevated levels ahead of the U.S. Presidential election”

Economic Data Docket: Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-city year-over-year NSA, August (5.92% prior); Conference Board consumer confidence, October (99.0 expected, 98.7 prior) JOLTS job openings, September (7.9 million expected, 8.04 million prior); Dallas Fed services activity, October (-2.6 prior)

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “trounced after a bounce” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13675   

 

Q43/24: 8 positive and 13 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again …

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to Wednesday’s earnings and economic expectation while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Redacted words from some companies: trustable guidance

Cell and gene therapy sector equities continued its dive on Tuesday after Monday’s positive close

  • After a week of Monday through Friday as market headwinds drained share pricing growth.
  • Closed negative on last Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday …
  • After the previous Friday climbed positive having dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes
  • After the previous, previous, previous positive Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday - October’s beginning.

 

This week’s toll versus some of the last:

  • 10/29 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/28 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats
  • Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Last Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • The US presidential election is injecting some uncertainty into markets in the final fierce days of campaigning.
  • Moving forward through the last remaining sessions of October and a few weeks into November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.