October 31, 2024 8:06am

Earnings, economics and October’s end

Earnings: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

Breaking: The personal consumption expenditures (PCE)price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with estimates. The inflation rate was at 2.7% excluding food and energy, after the so-called core measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis. The annual rate was 0.1% point higher than forecast but the same as in August. The move in inflation was tilted towards services prices, which increased 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%, the 4th outright deflation figure in the past 5 months for the category. Housing prices eased off their pace, rising 0.3%. Energy goods and services fell 2%. Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the August number and in line with expectations. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, topping the outlook by 0.1% point. The personal saving rate moved down to 4.6%, its lowest of the year

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Thursday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.51% or (-216 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.67% or (-37 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.71% or (-145 points)

  • Stock futures dived on Thursday, 10/31,
  • European markets fell,
  • Asia-Pacific markets slipped.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -91.51 points or -0.22%, the S&P closed DOWN -19.25 points or -0.33% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -104.82 points or -0.56%

PCE reading, along with Friday’s October payrolls report, will inform the Fed’s interest rate decision on Nov. 7 when it ends its two-day policy meeting.

Economic Data Docket: Core PCE index month-over-month, September (+0.2% expected, +0.1% prior); Core PCE index year-over-year, September (+2.6% expected, 2.7% prior);

  • Initial jobless claims, week ending Oct. 26 (227,000 prior); Continuing claims, week ending Oct. 19 (1.897 million prior); Employment cost index, Q/3 (0.9% expected, 0.9% prior); Challenger jobs cuts, year-over-year, October (+52.4% prior); Personal income, September (+0.4% expected, +0.2% prior);
  • Personal spending, September (+0.4% expected, +0.2% prior); MNI Chicago PMI, October (46.6 prior)

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “the earnings count down snagged on the downside” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13677

 

Q43/24: 8 positive and 14 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again …

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to Thursday’s earnings and economic expectation while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Yet again bracing for an economic inflation factor … 1 of 3 e’s

I await on Thursday morning … the personal consumption expenditures price index for September. This also happens to be the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that the PCE grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.1% from a year earlier.

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities continued its dive on Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close

  • After a week of Monday through Friday as market headwinds drained share pricing growth.
  • Closed negative on last Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday …
  • After the previous Friday climbed positive having dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes
  • After the previous, previous, previous positive Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday - October’s beginning.

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • The US presidential election is injecting some uncertainty into markets in the final fierce days of campaigning.
  • Moving forward through the last remaining sessions of October and a few weeks into November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.