October 31, 2024 4:30pm

As earnings and economics muddy the session amid heightened uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Presidential election next week

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) reported Q3/24 earnings, a net loss of -$111.6 or -$0.87 per share, revenue was $420 M with a 2027 runway and a cash position of $2.78 B. Reiterated 2024 Financial Guidance, Including Combined Net Product Revenues of $1,575 M to $1,650 M

Back to the beginning as earnings post, WHERE, WHAT and WHEN are the catalysts to move share pricing. Need more … and then more!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -378.41 points or -0.90%, the S&P closed DOWN -108.23 points or -1.86% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -512.78 points or -2.76%

  • Indexes continued the struggled dragged by earnings and economics

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. The core inflation rate was at 2.7% after the measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis.
  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, a decrease of 12,000 and below the forecast for 230,000.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliners, 27 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived (Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday) after ascending on Monday

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.49% and the XBI was down -1.43% while the VIX was up +2.70 points or +13.18% at 23.01

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:  Q4/24

  • 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 33):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$14.90 after Wednesday’s -$3.20, Tuesday’s -$2.22 and Monday’s +$2.05),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.73 after Wednesday’s +$5.84 after Tuesday’s -$0.63),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.54 after Wednesday’s -$1.01, Tuesday’s -$0.77 and Monday’s +$2.35),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.29, Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$1.91),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.87 after Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s -$0.65 and Monday’s +$1.17),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.85 after Wednesday’s -$0.96, Tuesday’s -$0.27 and Monday’s -$0.75),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$0.57, Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s +$1.48),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.66 after Wednesday’s +$0.47, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.83),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.59 after Wednesday’s +$0.33),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.59 after Wednesday’s +$0.12, Tuesday’s -$0.16 and Monday’s -$0.96),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (1 of 1):

  • MiMedx (MDXG +$1.16)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  losses accelerate …

Equity trading was sold to the negative, while the cell and gene therapy sector claimed its 3rd release.

  • Traders trimmed bets after Thursday and Wednesday’s economic reports.

 

The only positive news on the economic front came in the form of a significant drop in U.S. initial unemployment claims to a 5-month low, indicating a resilient labor market. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, surpassing economists’ expectations of 230,000 claims.

 

I CONTINUE to write about areas of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities closed Negative on Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s ride to the positive upside …

  • on Friday followed the week’s dive … after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s negative closes …
  • After jumping on last Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 10/31 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/30 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/29 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/28 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/25 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/24 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/23 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/22 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/21 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/18 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/17 - Thursday advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Wednesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Tuesday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 16 incliner, 14 decliners and 5 flats
  • 10/14 - Monday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 21 incliner, 10 decliners and 4 flats
  • 10/11 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
  • 10/10 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/9 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 10/8 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 16 incliner, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/7 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliner, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/3 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 2 flats
  • 10/2 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 10/1 – Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliner, 27 decliners and 3 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: MiMedx (MDXG) 
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), AxoGen (AXGN) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Tuesday: BioLife Solutions, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Compass Therapeutics CMPX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.