November 1, 2024 8:05am

Another economic journey; the cell and gene therapy sector remains a looming question that doesn't have a clear answer while the oversold have been weighted and now reaching for some daylight

Breaking: Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the estimate for 100,000. It was the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also was unchanged at 7.7%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month, slightly higher than the estimate, though the 4% 12-month gain was in line. The average work week held steady at 34.3 hours.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Never leave an investor uninform

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

 

Friday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.40% or (+167 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.38% or (+21 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.43% or (+86 points)

  • U.S. Futures point upward on Friday, 11/1,
  • European markets were higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets fell.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -378.41 points or -0.90%, the S&P closed DOWN -108.23 points or -1.86% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -512.78 points or -2.76%

  • The October jobs report is expected to show job gains slowed significantly during the month as recent hurricanes and a strike by Boeing workers weigh on the labor market.

Economic Data Docket: Nonfarm payrolls, October (+125,000 expected, +254,000 prior); Unemployment rate, October (4.1% expected, 4.1% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, October (+0.3% expected, +0.4% prior); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, October (+4% expected, +4% prior); Average weekly hours worked, October (34.2 expected, 34.2 prior); Labor force participation rate, (62.7% previously);

  • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, October final (47.8 prior); ISM manufacturing, October (47.6 expected, 47.2 prior); ISM prices paid, October (48.3 prior)

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing bell: “end of month sells off” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13679

 

Q4/24: November 1st session

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

Q3/24:

  • September – 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August – I neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again …

I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to Friday’s non-farm payrolls and • S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI expectations while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: If investors and funds are taking some risk off the table before the election, that can NOT ignore the depreciated share pricing of the sector.

Also, investors are watching Friday for the closely followed employment data due in the morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to by 100,000 jobs in October, which would mark the smallest increase in nearly four years. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is slated to hold steady at 4.1%.

Cell and gene therapy sector equities continued its dive on Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close – ending the month of October

  • After a week of Monday through Friday as market headwinds drained share pricing growth.
  • Closed negative on last Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday …
  • After the previous Friday climbed positive having dived on Thursday after positive closes on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday after diving Thursday, Wednesday after Tuesday and Monday negative closes
  • After the previous, previous, previous positive Friday, diving negative on the previous Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday - October’s beginning.

 

Although, more weakness could lie ahead with more wild swings like those seen over the past 2 months.

  • The US presidential election is injecting some uncertainty into markets in the final fierce days of campaigning.
  • Moving forward through the last remaining sessions of October and a few weeks into November, I believe the cell and gene therapy sector equities could be a bit rocky as Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases step to bat.
  • I am STILL wondering if … sentiment is moribund.
  • Keep overall exposure low and be ready to exit quickly.
  • As I have joked, “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” come to roost” until they fly away!

 

Also, the closer we come to the U.S. presidential election; volatility could inject by the VIX (fear gauge) stimulating risk.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.