November 1, 2024 4:49pm

As I wrote this a.m., “the oversold have been weighted and now reaching for some daylight”

These are the best of times and the worst of times. Sector equity year-to-date performance remains bottom-based. The wall of worry emerges as valuations are deflated, economic-related gradations remain, election tensions are heightened, and so on. Expect volatility to be more the norm versus exception.

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +288.73 points or +0.69%, the S&P closed UP +23.35 points or +0.41% while the Nasdaq closed UP +144.77 points or +0.80%

  • Indexes climbed Friday to kick off November looking past a disappointing jobs report

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • the U.S. economy added just 12 K jobs in October, far below the estimate of 100 K This marked the weakest level of jobs creation since December 2020. The unemployment rate, held at 4.1%, in line with estimates
  • The ISM index posted a reading of 46.5%, representing the share of firms reporting expansion. That was 0.7% point below September and worse than the 47.6% estimate. The prices index jumped 6.5 points to 54.8%, the biggest mover of any of the sub-indexes.              

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 29 incliners, 4 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 27 incliner, 6 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector ascended on Friday, 11/1 having dived (Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday) after a positive close on Monday

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +1.77% and the XBI was up +2.31% while the VIX was down -1.28 points or -5.53% at 21.88

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 1 positive close       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (6 of 6):

  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.15),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.05),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.05),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.05 after Thursday’s -$1.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.29, Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$1.91),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.03),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.01),

Flat (2):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (ALNY $0.00 after Thursday’s -$0.85, Wednesday’s -$0.96, Tuesday’s -$0.27 and Monday’s -$0.75),

Friday’s Closing Up (10 of 27):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7,32 after Thursday’s -$14.90, Wednesday’s -$3.20, Tuesday’s -$2.22 and Monday’s +$2.05),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.37 after Thursday’s -$1.54, Wednesday’s -$1.01, Tuesday’s -$0.77 and Monday’s +$2.35),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.19 after Thursday’s $1.73, Wednesday’s +$5.84 after Tuesday’s -$0.63),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.97 after Thursday’s -$0.68, Wednesday’s -$0.57, Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s +$1.48),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.67 after Thursday’s -$0.66, Wednesday’s +$0.47, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.83),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.59),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.87, Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s -$0.65 and Monday’s +$1.17),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.27),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.25),

 

As compared to: Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -378.41 points or -0.90%, the S&P closed DOWN -108.23 points or -1.86% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -512.78 points or -2.76%

  • Indexes continued the struggled dragged by earnings and economics

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The personal consumption expenditures price index showed a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase for the month, with the 12-month inflation rate at 2.1%, both in line with Dow Jones estimates. The core inflation rate was at 2.7% after the measure increased 0.3% on a monthly basis.
  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, a decrease of 12,000 and below the forecast for 230,000.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliners, 27 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived (Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday) after ascending on Monday

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.49% and the XBI was down -1.43% while the VIX was up +2.70 points or +13.18% at 23.01

 

As compared to: Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -91.51 points or -0.22%, the S&P closed DOWN -19.25 points or -0.33% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -104.82 points or -0.56%

  • Indexes struggled to the downside after a mixed session as trading varied on Wednesday after the 3rd sector earnings reports

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • GDP rose at a 2.8% annualized rate, while economists surveyed had been looking for an increase of 3.1%.
  • The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, rose 7.4% last month to 75.8 - the highest since March - from 70.6 in August.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived (Wednesday and Tuesday) after ascending on Monday

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.01% and the XBI was down -0.14% while the VIX was up +0.75 points or +3.89% at 20.09

 

As compared to: Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -154.52 points or -0.36%, the S&P closed UP +9.40 points or +0.16% while the Nasdaq closed UP +143.56 points or +0.78%

  • Indexes struggled as trading was mixed on Tuesday while job openings moved lower

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 7.44 million jobs open at the end of September, a decrease from the 7.86 million seen in August. August's figure was revised lower from the 8.04 million open jobs initially reported.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 22 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived after ascending

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.22% and the XBI was up +0.07% while the VIX was down -0.37 points or -1.87% at 19.43

 

 As compared to: Monday: The Dow closed UP +273.17 points or +0.65%, the S&P closed UP +15.40 points or +0.27% while the Nasdaq closed UP +48.58 points or +0.26%

  • Indexes rose along with a cooling geopolitical situation also supported risk sentiment

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Traders are also watching for a slew of key economic data this week, including a preliminary reading of Q3 gross domestic product on Wednesday; the September personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index, on expected Thursday; and the October jobs report due Friday.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 33 incliners, 0 decliners and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector ascended from the crypt

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.87% and the XBI was up +1.43% while the VIX was down -0.59 points or -3% at 19.74

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  new month, more material and earnings’ sessions to “kick”!

October jobs report added to the mixed picture of the US economy just ahead of the presidential election and the November Federal Reserve meeting,

A quote to ponder, “We're thinking more volatility next week, particularly, as the election goes because ... It's unlikely we get a result Tuesday night. That may extend for some time. The Fed meeting is [on] Thursday instead of Wednesday. We'll have to see what the Fed does. They'll probably cut by just a quarter and set themselves up for maybe another cut in December, depending upon the economic data continues to unfold, especially as we get through the weather and strike-related data." < US Bank Wealth Management senior investment strategist Rob Haworth>

 

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

 

Cell and gene therapy sector equities closed POSITIVE to open Novembers 1st session’s door, after  closing negative on Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s ride to the positive upside …

  • on Friday followed the week’s dive … after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s negative closes …
  • After jumping on last Friday after diving on Thursday after ascending on Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday pushed by a tailwind to a new high.
  • Having fluctuated to the UPSIDE on Friday after a NEGATIVE close on Thursday, Wednesday; Tuesday and Monday.
  • After popping on the previous, previous Friday following a negative close on Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due by at the least the 5th week of October – and them it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 27 incliner, 6 decliners and 2 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Thursday: MiMedx (MDXG) and Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), AxoGen (AXGN) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Tuesday: BioLife Solutions, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Agenus (AGEN), AxoGen (AXGN) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Compass Therapeutics CMPX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.