November 7, 2024 4:33pm

As I wrote, this a.m., “volatility will kill, ya’ sooner or later. Sell into dramatic updraft and build the cash position”

Today’s earnings: (MRNA), (VCEL), (NTLA) and (AXGN); 21 earnings releases, 2 net incomes and 19 net losses to date of 35 covered companies

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: watch below, the volatility will kill, ya’ sooner or later… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13688    

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -0.59 points or -0.00%, the S&P closed UP +44.06 points or +0.74% while the Nasdaq closed UP +285.99 points or +1.51%

  • Indexes jumped on Thursday extending post-election rally
  • The bond market has also been volatile, with Treasury yields falling Thursday after spiking in the previous session.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The rate decision from the Fed for 25 basis points to a range of 4.5-4.75%

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 17 incliners, 13 decliners and 5 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector dived on Thursday after jumping positive Wednesday and Tuesday after negative close on Monday

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +0.97% and the XBI was UP +0.54% while the VIX was down -0.99 points or -6.08% at 15.28

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 2 negative and 3 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Earnings - today:

  • Moderna (MRNA) reported Q3/24 earnings, a net income of +13 M or +$0.03 per share, revenue was $1.86 B with a 2028 runway and a cash position of $9.2 B
  • Vericel (VCEL) reported Q3/24 earnings, a net loss of -$900 K or -$0.02 per share, Revenue was $57.9 M with a 2027 runway and a cash position of $151 M
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) reported Q3/24 earnings, a net loss of -$135.7 M or -$1.34 per share, revenue/collab/of $9.1 M with a 2026 runway and a cash position of $944.7 M (with ATM of $176.9 M & collab reimb of $47 M)
  • AxoGen (AXGN) reported Q3/24 earnings, a net loss of -$1.9 M or -$0.04 per share, revenue was $48.6 M with a 2026 runway and a cash position of $30.5 M

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 20):

  • AxoGen (AXGN - $2.06 after earnings release)
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.52 after Tuesday’s -$1.48 after Tuesday’s -$0.25 after Monday’s -$0.97),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.79 after Tuesday’s +$7,72 after Tuesday’s -$4.66 after Monday’s -$3.96),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.58),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.52 after Tuesday’s +$2.69, Tuesday’s -$0.43 and Monday’s +$1.43),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.46 after Tuesday’s +$0.68,Tuesday’s +$0.36 and Monday’s +$1.49),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.37),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.29),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.24),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.09),

Flat (4):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Thursday’s Closing Up (11 of 11):

  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.99 after Wednesday’s +$3.29, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$0.38),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.78 after Wednesday’s +$2.08, Tuesday’s +$5.67 and Monday’s+$1.18),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.76 after Wednesday’s +$0.51),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.16),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.37),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.34),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$3.58),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$1.10, Tuesday’s +$0.50 and Monday’s -$0.30),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.0563),
  • Caribou BioSciences (CRBU +$0.03),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.01)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  new month, 5th session … 3 positives and 2 negative close with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are due and then it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Ranking November:      

  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: AxoGen (AXGN), Moderna (MRNA) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Moderna (MRNA) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.