November 11, 2024 4:52pm

Earnings reporting season is not over yet as markets cools, coming back from last week's rally

The market is also waiting for economic data, with October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slated for Wednesday and retail sales due Friday

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Ready for the weekly ride? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13692

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +304.14 points or +0.69%, the S&P closed UP +5.81 points or +0.10% while the Nasdaq closed UP +11.99 points or -0.06%

  • Indexes closed positive and still skyward

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • “The Republicans’ decisive win has ignited ‘animal spirits,’ despite already lofty expectations.” <Morgan Stanley Wealth management chief investment officer Lisa Shalett>

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed positive on a non-earnings session and semi-holiday

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.76% and the XBI was down -0.62% while the VIX was UP +0.03 points or +0.20% at 14.97

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 3 negative and 4 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Monday’s Closing Down (11 of 11):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$4.08 after Friday’s -$3.45),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.96 after Friday’s -$0.56),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.31 after Friday’s +$0.73),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies ADVM -$0.24 after Friday’s +$0.10)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.17),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.13 after Friday’s +$0.36),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.12),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.08 after Friday’s -$0.12),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.01),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.0050),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.004),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 23):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.29 after Friday’s +$0.96),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.24 after Friday’s -$0.26),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.78 after Friday’s+$3.97),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.39 after Friday’s +$5.21),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$1.31 after Friday’s -$0.61),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.77 after Friday’s +$0.73),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.68 after Friday’s +$2.54),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.55 after Friday’s +$0.54),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.47),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.40),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  new month of November, 8th session … 4 positives and 3 negative close with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

 

Many stock market “PLAYERS” keep talking about … early signs of "animal spirits" coming into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are STILL and then it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), AxoGen (AXGN) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.