November 12, 2024 4:31pm

Earnings reporting season is not over yet as markets cools, coming back from last week's rally

The market is also waiting for economic data, with October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slated for Wednesday and retail sales due Friday

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: call the ball or a wave off? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13694

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -382.15 points or -0.86%, the S&P closed DOWN -17.38 points or -0.29% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -17.36 points or -0.09%

  • Indexes closed down ending a 4-day run
  • “What’s driving today’s trade is maybe a little bit of exhaustion. We’re all concerned about [debt and deficits]. The deficit is always a problem when it’s a problem, but right now the market views it as a problem. It may be a reason to take your foot off of the gas when the market already has a bit of indigestion.” <Mark Malek, Siebert chief investment officer>

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Trading has reflected investor optimism that Trump’s winning the election could bring both lower taxes and looser regulations, and ultimately serve as a boon to the broader market

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.27% and the XBI was down -2.92% while the VIX was down -0.25 points or -1.60% at 14.73

 

As compared to: Monday: The Dow closed UP +304.14 points or +0.69%, the S&P closed UP +5.81 points or +0.10% while the Nasdaq closed UP +11.99 points or +0.06%

  • Indexes closed positive and still skyward

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • “The Republicans’ decisive win has ignited ‘animal spirits,’ despite already lofty expectations.” <Morgan Stanley Wealth management chief investment officer Lisa Shalett>

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed positive on a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.76% and the XBI was down -0.62% while the VIX was UP +0.03 points or +0.20% at 14.97

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 4 negative and 4 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 27):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$10.87 after Monday’s +$2.39),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.13 after Monday’s +$3.24),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.25 after Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.89),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.41 after Monday’s +$3.29),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.11 after Monday’s -$0.31),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.05 after Monday’s +$0.40),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.93),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.89 after Monday’s +$2.78),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.85 after Monday’s +$0.77),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.50 after Monday’s +$0.68),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.72 after Monday’s -$4.08),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.22 after Monday’s +$0.55),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies ADVM +$0.13 after Monday’s -$0.24)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.065)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.02 with 2,670 shares traded <?>),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.01 after Monday’s -$0.17),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  new month of November, 9th session … 4 positives and 4 negative close with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

  • Indexes lost steam on Tuesday as investors assessed whether buying has been overdone and what President-elect Trump's Cabinet picks mean for policy.
  • Also, the breather in equities came as Treasury yields ticked higher. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) added about 12 basis points to hit about 4.43%.

 

Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about … early signs of "animal spirits" coming into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.
  • Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are STILL and then it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage
  • Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Moderna (MRNA) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.