November 13, 2024 4:39pm

By sellout of pricing led by old “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs”

The market is also waiting for economic data, with October's producer price index data and retail sales numbers

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.40) Chronicles: notice the huge pricing downdrafts and flats, gigantic zooming volumes in weekly sessions? MORE to come, as major management and Board members are from or reside in Beijing, PRC; U.S. investors BEWARE, forewarned is forearmed?

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: not published, sticking with Tuesday’s - "a wave off as investor appetite wains" … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13695

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +47.21 points or +0.11%, the S&P closed UP +1.40 points or +0.02% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -50.66 points or -0.26%

  • Indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed consumer inflation data

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The October consumer price index accelerated a tad to a 2.6% annual rate, matching the consensus estimate. Core prices, which exclude food and energy from the reading, rose 3.3% last month, which also matched estimates.
  • The producer price index data and retail sales numbers will be announced Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.39% and the XBI was down -0.50% while the VIX was down -0.69 points or -4.69% at 14.02

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 5 negative and 4 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.35 after Tuesday’s -$10.87 after Monday’s +$2.39),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.39),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.33 after Tuesday’s +$0.72 after Monday’s -$4.08),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.94 after Tuesday’s -$4.13 after Monday’s +$3.24),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.91 after Tuesday’s +$1.50 after Monday’s +$0.68),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.73),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.62),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.85 after Monday’s +$0.77),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.44 after Tuesday’s -$2.41 after Monday’s +$3.29),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.42 after Tuesday’s -$0.89 after Monday’s +$2.78),

Flat (2):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE),

Wednesday’s Closing Up (8 of 8):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.76 after Tuesday’s +$0.22 after Monday’s +$0.55),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.87 after Tuesday’s -$2.89),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.26 after Tuesday’s -$3.25 after Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$1.05 after Monday’s +$0.40),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$0.93),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.05),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$1.11 after Monday’s -$0.31),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The Nasdaq reversed gains with the cell and gene therapy sector getting “whacked.”

November’s 10th session … 4 positives and 5 negative close with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

Reiterating, “Consumer prices rose largely as forecast in October, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.6% year over year and 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, both meeting forecasts. Rises in "core" inflation — of 3.3% year over year and 0.3% month over month — also met estimates.”

Quote to ponder, “"The inflation data over the past few months have not shown much additional progress, and the election outcome has raised new questions about the path ahead for price growth. We think the time is fast approaching when the FOMC will signal that the pace of rate cuts will slow further, perhaps to an every-other-meeting pace starting in 2025." < Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House>

Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about … early signs of "animal spirits" coming into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

 

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are STILL and then it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Moderna (MRNA) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.