November 14, 2024 4:27pm

As econs dissipate market rally and Fed’s Powell says no need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates

While the "core" Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 3.1% in October, up from 2.8% the month prior and above economist expectations for a 3% increase

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: further erosion of pricing or some contained explosions? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13697

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -207.58 points or -0.47%, the S&P closed DOWN -36.20 points or -0.60% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -123.07 points or -0.64%

  • Indexes closed lower as Powell signals caution on rate cuts after PPI results

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September through matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.
  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 217,000 for the week ended Nov. 9, down 4,000 from the previous period and slightly lower than the 220,000 estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled 1.873 million, down 11,000 from the prior week.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -2.58% and the XBI was down -3.04% while the VIX was up +0.07 points or +0.50% at 14.09

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 6 negative and 4 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 31):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.56 after Wednesday’s -$4.35, Tuesday’s -$10.87 and Monday’s +$2.39),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.94 after Wednesday’s -$0.94, Tuesday’s -$4.13 and Monday’s +$3.24),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.73 after Wednesday’s -$0.42, Tuesday’s -$0.89 and Monday’s +$2.78),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.46 after Wednesday’s -$2.39),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$2.41 after Wednesday’s -$0.91, Tuesday’s +$1.50 and Monday’s +$0.68),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.37)
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.23 after Wednesday’s +$0.26, Tuesday’s -$3.25 and Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.19)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.07 after Wednesday’s +$0.87 and Tuesday’s -$2.89)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.99 after Wednesday’s -$0.54, Tuesday’s -$0.85 and Monday’s +$0.77),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (3 of 3):

  • MiMedx (MDXG +$1.76),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.47 after Wednesday’s +$0.18, Tuesday’s -$1.05 and Monday’s +$0.40)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.03 after Wednesday's -$0.40 and Tuesday's $0.00),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: More than a hangover but a sentiment dissatisfaction

  • The Nasdaq again reversed gains with the cell and gene therapy sector getting “whacked.”

November’s 12th session … 4 positives and 6 negative close with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

  • Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

 

Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about … early signs of "animal spirits" coming into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/14 – Thursday: closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are STILL and then it is time – to thin the ranks of some I.e., SELL before any collapse of share pricing.

  • FOCUS and be aware on those with development partners, runways and ATM usage

Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: MiMedx (MDXG), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Moderna (MRNA) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Vericel (VCEL) 
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.