November 15, 2024 5:06pm

The cell and gene therapy sector can’t catch a break in downdrafts as pharmaceuticals were under pressure after President- elect Trump planned nominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the U.S. Department Health and Human Services

The Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) closes down -$0.03 with 10,000 shares traded. Shares traded this week Thursday 300 <+$0.03>, 36,600 <-$0.40)>, 2700 <$0.00> and 300 <-$0.02> on Monday. Volume zooms as WHO (?) picks-up shares – its own DST Capital, their in-house fund?? Do additional facts state the obvious – a Ponzi Scheme?

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in Review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: investors feel the pain… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13699

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/24 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions, revenue and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13441

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -305.87 points or -0.70%, the S&P closed DOWN -75.55 points or -1.32% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -427.53 points or -2.245%

  • Indexes closed lower as the postelection rally fizzled
  • Declines in pharmaceutical stocks weighed on the 30-stock Dow and the S&P 500
  • Traders also grappled with comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said on Thursday that the central bank wasn’t “in a hurry” to cut interest rates.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Retail sales data on Friday showed an increase of 0.4% in October, slightly better than the 0.3% forecast from economists polled by Dow Jones. That caps a busy week for economic data that was punctuated by releases of closely watched inflation gauges focused on consumers and producers.
  • Import prices rose a stronger than expected 0.3% in October. Also, the Empire State Manufacturing Index soared to 31.2, its highest level since December 2021 and far better than the estimate for a flat reading.  

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) fell more than 5% and was on pace to register its worst week since January 2022
  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative on Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -4.79% and the XBI was down -5.29% while the VIX was up +1.83 points or +12.79% at 16.14

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 7 negative and 4 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing Down (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$22.35 after Thursday’s -$5.56 after Wednesday’s -$4.35, Tuesday’s -$10.87 and Monday’s +$2.39),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$9.96 after Thursday’s +$0.53 after Wednesday’s +$0.26, Tuesday’s -$3.25 and Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.92),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.89 after Thursday’s -$0.74 after Wednesday’s +$0.01, Tuesday’s -$1.11 and Monday’s -$0.31),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.89 after Thursday’s -$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$0.87 and Tuesday’s -$2.89),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.26),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.51 after Thursday’s +$1.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.18, Tuesday’s -$1.05 and Monday’s +$0.40),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.28 after Thursday’s -$0.28 after Wednesday’s +$1.76, Tuesday’s +$0.22 and Monday’s +$0.55),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.15 after Thursday’s -$0.67 after Wednesday’s -$0.54, Tuesday’s -$0.85 and Monday’s +$0.77),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.73 after Thursday’s -$1.46 after Wednesday’s -$0.91, Tuesday’s +$1.50 and Monday’s +$0.68),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing Up (4 of 4):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.40 after Thursday’s -$1.43 after Wednesday’s -$0.94, Tuesday’s -$4.13 and Monday’s +$3.24),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.17),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.98),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.05 after Thursday’s +$1.76),

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -207.58 points or -0.47%, the S&P closed DOWN -36.20 points or -0.60% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -123.07 points or -0.64%

•              Indexes closed lower as Powell signals caution on rate cuts after PPI results

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

•              The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September through matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.

•              Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 217,000 for the week ended Nov. 9, down 4,000 from the previous period and slightly lower than the 220,000 estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled 1.873 million, down 11,000 from the prior week.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat

•              Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -2.58% and the XBI was down -3.04% while the VIX was up +0.07 points or +0.50% at 14.09

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +47.21 points or +0.11%, the S&P closed UP +1.40 points or +0.02% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -50.66 points or -0.26%

  • Indexes closed mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed consumer inflation data

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • The October consumer price index accelerated a tad to a 2.6% annual rate, matching the consensus estimate. Core prices, which exclude food and energy from the reading, rose 3.3% last month, which also matched estimates.
  • The producer price index data and retail sales numbers will be announced Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative Wednesday and Tuesday after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.39% and the XBI was down -0.50% while the VIX was down -0.69 points or -4.69% at 14.02

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -382.15 points or -0.86%, the S&P closed DOWN -17.38 points or -0.29% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -17.36 points or -0.09%

  • Indexes closed down ending a 4-day run

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Trading has reflected investor optimism that Trump’s winning the election could bring both lower taxes and looser regulations, and ultimately serve as a boon to the broader market

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 10 incliners, 24 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed negative after Monday’s positive close, a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.27% and the XBI was down -2.92% while the VIX was down -0.25 points or -1.60% at 14.73

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +304.14 points or +0.69%, the S&P closed UP +5.81 points or +0.10% while the Nasdaq closed UP +11.99 points or +0.06%

  • Indexes closed positive and still skyward

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • “The Republicans’ decisive win has ignited ‘animal spirits,’ despite already lofty expectations.” <Morgan Stanley Wealth management chief investment officer Lisa Shalett>

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat

  • Cell and gene therapy sector closed positive on a non-earnings session

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.76% and the XBI was down -0.62% while the VIX was UP +0.03 points or +0.20% at 14.97

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: More than a hangover but a sentiment black-out 

  • The Nasdaq again reversed gains with the cell and gene therapy sector getting “whacked.”

November’s 11th session … 4 positives and 7 negative closes with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

  • Looking ahead, brace for more market volatility!

 

Quote to ponder, “Investors are catching their breath and evaluating whether the advance has merit,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “We really don’t see anything on the horizon right now to upend stocks, but investors are always sort of looking around to see what could cause the trend to end.”

 

Riterating, many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about … early signs of "animal spirits" coming into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/15 – Friday: closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/4 – Thursday: closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

I CONTINUE to write about earnings’ season of concern, "I’m just not sure what's going to reignite share pricing SUSTAINABILTY as earnings season is about to … HIT with LPS (loss-per-share) expectation and consensus. "

  • Although, the wide dispersion of potential outcomes in elections, interest rates, and geopolitical situations globally has created volatility.

Sector LPS (loss-per-share) earnings are STILL releasing as sentiment thins the ranks ... collapsing share pricing.

  • Also, be aware that portfolio managers will be addressing rotations as year comes to an end trying to be careful to spread them out over the last few months in Q4.

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Thursday: MiMedx (MDXG), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESO), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Moderna (MRNA) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.