November 18, 2024 4:32pm

The recent slide for biopharma stocks could be a good buying opportunity for patient investors; theorized risks that are currently being priced in outweighs the potential for additional downside, especially for longer term investors,” <JPMorgan’s Chris Schott>

News: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.25) Presented 6-month follow-up data on 1st patient treated in P1 Autoimmunity Study with Active Lupus Nephritis as patient achieved DORIS (definition of remission in SLE)

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: down so long, time for an upside flip … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13701  

RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… 34 reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628  

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -55.39 points or -0.13%, the S&P closed UP +23 points or +0. l39% while the Nasdaq closed UP +111.68 points or +0.60%

  • Monday’s moves follow a tough week for the three major benchmarks, now off the highs seen in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in November, up three points from October

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat

  • Share pricing slippage post earnings and “political” concerns, I believe are … overdone

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.25% and the XBI was up +0.14% while the VIX was down -0.61 points or -3.78% at 15.53

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 8 negative and 4 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

Q3/24

  • September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 20):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.29 after Friday’s -$22.35),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.97 after Friday’s -$2.89),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.61 after Friday’s -$2.89),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.55),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.32),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.29),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.28 after Friday’s -$0.73),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.25),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.24 after Friday’s -$0.03),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.16),

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 14):

  • Moderna (MRNA +$2.66 after Friday’s -$2.92),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.49 after Friday’s -$9.96),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.60 after Friday’s -$1.28
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.52 after Friday’s -$1.51
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.41),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.25),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.20 after Friday’s -$1.15),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.16 after Friday’s +$0.17),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.15),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.07),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: slippin’ and sliding sector … still on perceived ill-intent future!

The SPDR Health Care Sector Fund (XLV) could see its longest losing streak since July.

  • The exchange-traded fund ticked lower by about 0.2% in morning trading. Monday could mark a sixth straight negative day, which would be its longest period of straight losses since July.

November’s 12th session … 4 positives and 8 negative closes with more earnings’ sessions to “kick” November!

 

Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about … early signs of "animal spirits" coming into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/18 – Monday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/15 – Friday: closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/4 – Thursday: closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

Portfolio managers are affecting rotations as 2024 comes to years-end.

 

I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.