November 20, 2024 4:45pm
It’s worth taking look at pipeline and proximity to clinical results versus investment risk
Raise the conviction flag, insider buys are needed, not just option execution but, “true” holds
It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi
Never leave an investor uninformed!
On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!
It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: get some more … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13705
RegMed Investors (RMi) - Q3/24 Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Results… 34 reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628
Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +139.53 points or +0.32%, the S&P closed UP +0.13 points or +0.00% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -21.33 points or -0.11%
- Jitters over earnings and political strains are nerve-wracking investors
Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
- Recent data has indicated that the Fed has neared its 2% inflation target, though the all-items consumer price index nudged higher in October and the core rate indeed has held steady around 3.3% since August.
Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 20 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
- The share pricing pain is untenable
Metrics: Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.09%, the XBI was up +0.90% while the VIX was up +0.88 points or +5.38% at 17.23
Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:
Q4/24 November – 9 negative and 5 positive closes
- October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions
Q3/24
- September – 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- August: 1 neutral, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
- July: 1 market holiday. 1 day off, 6 negative, 1 neutral and 12 positive closes
Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 17):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.01),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.80 after Tuesday’s +$1.17 after Monday’s +$0.07),
- Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.74 after Tuesday’s +$1.73 after Monday’s +$0.28),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.49 after Tuesday’s +$0.18 after Monday’s +$0.60),
- Moderna (MRNA -$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$2.22 after Monday’s +$2.66),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.34 after Monday’s -$0.29),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.18)
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.18),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.11 after Monday’s +$0.15),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.12 after Tuesday’s -$0.36),
Flat (3):
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of 15):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$14.52 after Tuesday’s +$2.94 after Monday’s -$3.29),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.57 after Tuesday’s +$2.00 after Monday’s -$0.55),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.65),
- Vericel VCEL +$1.43),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.27 after Tuesday’s +$1.35 after Monday’s -$0.97),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.29),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s +$1.49),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.16),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.06),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR+$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.25),
The BOTTOM LINE: Still … slippin’ and sliding; sector equities does NOT recover from losses in trading … as recognition DIDN’T rise for the oversold.
November’s 14th session … 5 positives and 9 negative closes earnings’ close out the season.
Valuations have been depleted; there will be a limit accentuating fore coming gain – however, it’s coming – I’m forecasting an upcoming reversal of the downtrend!
Keeping the definition in the news: Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about "animal spirits" having come into play:
- Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
- Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
- Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
- What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.
Ranking the end of October:
- 11/20 – Wednesday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
- 11/19 – Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
- 11/18 – Monday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
- 11/15 – Friday: closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
- 11/4 – Thursday: closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
- 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
- 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
- 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
- 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
- 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
- 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
- 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
- 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
- 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.
- I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
- Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
- Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY)
- Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Mesoblast (MESO)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Wednesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
- Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
- Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
