November 22, 2024 4:44pm

Sector small-cap equities saw deserved gains on Friday shaping the trading week

Most of Thursday’s dives added some jive to rock and roll

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: chug and chug; the sector labors up sentiment hill … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13709

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +426.16 points or +0.97%, the S&P closed UP +20.63 points or +0.35% while the Nasdaq closed UP +31.23 points or +0.16%

  • U.S. averages experience weekly gains marking a continuation of a trend where investors shift exposure to sensitive corners of the market.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Consumer sentiment in November moved lower according University of Michigan; the last of 3 readings showed the sentiment index at 71.8, better than the 70.5 from October but down 1.3 points from the 2nd reading. Economists had been looking for 73.5.
  • The purchase managers <S&P Global> reading for services moved up to 57.0, a two-point increase from October and the highest reading in 32 months. On the manufacturing side, the index nudged higher to 48.8, up slightly from October and the highest level in 4 months. The manufacturing reading met the estimate while the services index was slightly better than the 55.0 forecast.

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 7 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat

  • Recent choppiness shouldn’t make investors question whether the cell and gene therapy sector has continuity of strength without too much dilution until December’s end

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +1.86%, the XBI was up +1.94% while the VIX was down -1.56 points or 9.26% at 15.31

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 November – 9 negative and 7 positive closes       

  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (9 of 9):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.47 after Thursday’s +$1.31, Wednesday’s -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 after Monday’s +$1.49),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.91 after Thursday’s -$1.99, Wednesday’s +$14.52, Tuesday’s +$2.94 and Monday’s -$3.29),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.19),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.08),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07 after Thursday’s -$0.15 after Wednesday’s -$0.49, Tuesday’s +$0.18 and Monday’s +$0.60),),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.06),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.02 after Thursday’s +$0.16 after Wednesday’s -$0.18),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.0003)

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 25):

  • Moderna (MRNA +$2.86),
  • Vericel VCEL +$2.40 after Thursday’s -$0.55 after Wednesday’s +$1.43),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.59 after Thursday’s -$0.97 after Wednesday’s +$0.29),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.47 after Thursday’s -$0.91 after Wednesday’s -$0.80, Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.07),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.22 after Thursday’s -$0.38 after Wednesday’s +$1.27, Tuesday’s +$1.35 and Monday’s -$0.97),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.18 after Thursday’s +$0.41, Wednesday’s -$0.74, Tuesday’s +$1.73 and Monday’s +$0.28),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.62 after Thursday’s +$0.38, Wednesday’s +$2.57, Tuesday’s +$2.00 and Monday’s -$0.55)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.50 after Thursday’s +$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$1.01),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.48 after Thursday’s +$0.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.06),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.41 after Thursday’s $0.45),

 

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +461.88 points or +1.06%, the S&P closed UP +31.60 points or +0.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.28 points or +0.03%

  • Despite the all-encompassing focus on Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Jobless claims numbers showed the labor market at least holding steady, if not strengthening,
  • Continuing claims for jobless insurance climbed to 1.908 M from 1.872 M last week and 25,000 more than the street’s estimate of 1.883 M.
  • The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index of activity in the region slowed to -5.5 in November against economists’ estimate of +6.9 and October’s +10.3.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat

  • A better session as the oversold were recognized

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +1.26%, the XBI was up +0.29% while the VIX was down -0.29 points or 1.69% at 16.87

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +139.53 points or +0.32%, the S&P closed UP +0.13 points or +0.00% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -21.33 points or -0.11%

  • Jitters over earnings and political strains are nerve-wracking investors

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Recent data has indicated that the Fed has neared its 2% inflation target, though the all-items consumer price index nudged higher in October and the core rate indeed has held steady around 3.3% since August.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 11 incliners, 20 decliners and 4 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats

  • The share pricing pain is untenable

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.09%, the XBI was up +0.90% while the VIX was up +0.88 points or +5.38% at 17.23

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -120.66 points or -0.28%, the S&P closed UP +23.36 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +195.66 points or +1.04%

  • Amid concerns of mounting geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
  • Treasury prices increased as investors moved into the safe haven, driving yields lower. Gold futures also gained.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • New housing data missed expectations in October as surging mortgage rates coincided with a decline in activity. Privately owned new construction totaled a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 M units, down 3.1% from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 1.34 M. The total also was 4% below October 2023.  

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 7 incliners, 25 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats

  • Share pricing slippage post earnings and “political” concerns, I believe are … overdone

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.26%, the XBI was up +1.32% while the VIX was up +0.72 points or +4.69% at 16.31

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -55.39 points or -0.13%, the S&P closed UP +23 points or +0. l3% while the Nasdaq closed UP +111.68 points or +0.60%

  • Monday’s moves follow a tough week for the three major benchmarks, now off the highs seen in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

  • Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in November, up three points from October

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was neutral with 16 incliners, 16 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat

  • Share pricing slippage post earnings and “political” concerns, I believe are … overdone

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.25% and the XBI was up +0.14% while the VIX was down -0.61 points or -3.78% at 15.53

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Slowly the cell and gene therapy sector floated to the upside   

  • Still some slippage; as sector equities recovered from alternative trading loss sessions … as recognition rose for the oversold.

Market sentiment appears mixed, although up; it seems a response to traders looking for upside profits.

  • “The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging” and start filling share pricing hole!

November’s 16th session … 6 positive and 9 negative closes earnings’ close out the season.

  • From Wednesday’s post: It’s worth taking look at pipeline and proximity to clinical results versus investment risk. Raise the conviction flag, insider buys are needed, not just option execution but, “true” holds

 

Keep the definition in the news: Many stock market “PLAYERS” … keep talking about "animal spirits" having come into play:

  • Animal spirits come from the Latin spiritus animalis: "the breath that awakens the human mind." It was coined by British economist, John Maynard Keynes in 1936.
  • Animal spirits refer to the ways that human emotion can drive financial decision-making in uncertain environments and volatile times.
  • Five (5) cognitive and social psychological core phenomena as the "animal spirits" (a term coined by Keynes): Confidence, corruption, money illusion, fairness, and stories.
  • What did Keynes say about animal spirits? … Conventional economic analysis confines itself to rational, quantifiable facts. However, economic decision makers are often intuitive, emotional and irrational. John Maynard Keynes coined the term “animal spirits” to refer to emotional mindsets. Confidence or lack of it can drive or hamper economic growth.

 

Ranking the end of October:      

  • 11/22 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/21 – Thursday: closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/20 – Wednesday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 17 decliners and 3 flats
  • 11/19 – Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/18 – Monday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/15 – Friday: closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/4 – Thursday: closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/13 – Wednesday: closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/12 – Tuesday: closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/11 – Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • 11/8 – Friday: closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/7 – Thursday: closed negative with 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 11/6 – Wednesday: closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/5 – Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/4 – Monday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • 11/1 - Friday advance/decline line closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Moderna (MRNA) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP
  • Wednesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.