December 4, 2024 4:38pm

As indexes roll to record highs after I wrote this a.m., “expectation versus consequences”

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight.

Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: expectation versus consequences … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13720  

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +308.51 points or +0.69%, the S&P closed UP +36.61 points or +0.61% while the Nasdaq closed UP +254.21 points or +1.30%

  • Wednesday, indexes rose to fresh records

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Private payrolls growth was less than expected in November, reflecting a slowing labor market …

  • Companies added 146,000 jobs on the month, below the downwardly revised 184,000 in October and less than the Dow Jones estimate for 163,000. Education and health services led job creation, adding 50,000 positions on the month. That was followed by construction with 30,000 new jobs, trade, transportation and utilities with 28,000 additions, and the other services category, which contributed 20,000 jobs. Manufacturing lost 26,000 positions on the month. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees also reported a drop of 17,000. Wage growth accelerated, by 4.8%, a faster gain than October, the first time that has happened in 25 months.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 18 incliners, 15 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 21 decliners and 3 flats

  • The music stopped and the sector dropped

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.96%, the XBI was up +1.10% while the VIX was up +0.16 points or +1.20% at 13.46

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 1 positive and 2 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 21):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.95 after Tuesday’s -$1.68 and Monday’s +$1.20)
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.23),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.43),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.38),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.33),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.28),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMP -$0.21),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.16 after Tuesday’s -$1.08),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.70)
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.135),

Flat (3):

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN $0.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.06 after Monday’s -$0.23 and Friday’s $0.00)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Solid Biosciences SLDB)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (11 of 11): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.88 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s -$0.06),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.34),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.44 after Tuesday’s -$0.93 and Monday’s -$0.03)
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.39),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.3778),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$1.64 and Monday’s +$1.77),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.06),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.04 after Tuesday’s -$2.32 and Monday’s +$0.92),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.04 after Tuesday’s +$0.17),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.01)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.01),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Market indexes up, sector down as sentiment stumbles

For the week:

  • The S&P 500 is up 54.11 points, or 0.9%.
  • The Dow is up 103.39 points, or 0.2%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 516.95 points, or 2.7%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 8.16 points, or 0.3%.

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off December, the final month of 2024 with ...

  • A Monday positive followed by
  • Tuesday and Wednesday’s negative closes

 

Markets kept moved higher as Powell spoke at the New York Times DealBook Summit and did little to shake investor confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Powell touted a US economy in "remarkably good shape" as a reason he feels the Fed can be "afford to be a little more cautious" in its interest rate cutting path. <Yahoo Finance>

On that economic strength: A reading on private payrolls suggested the labor market is softening — but not too much. The report is one of several key economic releases this week, leading into the all-important monthly jobs report on Friday. <Yahoo Finance>

 

December is traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget end of year tax selling and portfolio rotation due to recommendations are a’comin’!

Investors are starting to count down to the November jobs report on Friday, a key input for the Fed's policy making, as well as to job openings and private payrolls readings.

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), MiMedx (MDXG) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Verve therapeutics (VERV)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA) and Mesoblast (MESO) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.