December 5, 2024 4:40pm

Right again as payrolls report looms

News: Agenus (AGEN -$0.29 <-8.45%> to $3.14) realignment and streamlined operations, strengthening its financial position, and prioritizing its programs as it prepares for 2025. Reduced cash burn to $100 M for FY 2025; including a $22 M mortgage secured by key real estate assets, providing the company with enhanced operational flexibility during this pivotal period.

It’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: caution … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13722

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -248.33 points or -0.55%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.38 points or -0.19% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -34.86 points or -0.08%

  • Indexes were down on Thursday as investors awaited more key economic data

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Initial filings for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week.  First-time claims for the week ending Nov. 30 totaled 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous period and higher than the estimate for 215,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower after being mostly on the rise for the past two months. The new total is 1.87 M, a decrease of 25,000 and lower than the FactSet forecast for 1.91 M. <Labor Department reported>
  • Bullishness about the outlook for stocks over the next six months leaped to 48.3% in the week ended Wednesday from 37.1% last week and an historical average of 37.5%. Bearish views tumbled to 30.7% of respondents from 38.6% last week and an average of 31% since the survey began. <American Association of Individual Investors>
  • The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast shows a fourth-quarter growth rate of 3.3%. That’s slight increase from 3.2% in Monday’s update.
  • The U.S. trade imbalance was lower than expected in October> The deficit in goods and services totaled $73.8 B for the month, down $10 B from September and less than the $74.8 billion Dow Jones consensus estimate. Much of the decrease came as the shortfall with the European Union fell by $6.7 B. For the year, the trade deficit is up 12.3% compared to the same period in 2023. <Census Bureau report>

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliners, 30 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

  • Again, the music stopped, sentiment slipped and the sector dropped

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.01%, the XBI was down -1.46% while the VIX was up +0.04 points or +0.30% at 13.49

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 1 positive and 3 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 27):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.91 after Wednesday’s +$2.88 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s -$0.06),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.63),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.63),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.44),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.20 after Wednesday’s -$0.43),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.84 after Wednesday’s -$0.16 and Tuesday’s -$1.08),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.70 after Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s -$2.32 and Monday’s +$0.92),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.38),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.45 after Wednesday’s -$0.50 and Tuesday’s +$0.23),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.42 after Wednesday’s -$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.70)

Flat (1):

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.31 after Tuesday’s -$0.95, Tuesday’s -$1.68 and Monday’s +$1.20)
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.30),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.93 and Monday’s -$0.03)
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.28 after Tuesday’s -$1.64 and Monday’s +$1.77),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.09),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMP +$0.03 and Tuesday’s -$0.21),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.02)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Econs matter …

Market indexes down, cell gene therapy sector down as sentiment stumbles AGAIN.

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off December, the final month of 2024 with

  • A Monday positive close followed by
  • Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes

 

December is traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget end of year tax selling and portfolio rotation due to recommendations are a’comin’!

Investors are starting to count down to the November jobs report on Friday, a key input for the Fed's policy making, ... While portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.

  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: Moderna (MRNA), uniQure NV (QURE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Tuesday: Mesoblast (MESO), MiMedx (MDXG) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Mesoblast (MESO) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.