RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: momentum mania creates a soon to be a cratering sector

December 9, 2024 8:07am

When I see highs, I contemplate bye

Pre-open Indications: 2 Negative, 3 Positive and 3 Sell into Strength

Sooner or later, it’s winners versus losers who will rock and then roll-over to years-end

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today!

Friday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: cell and gene therapy share pricing inclines are due to trading, not catalysts … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13725

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.04% or (+16 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.05% or (-3 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -0.16% or (-35 points)

• U.S. stock futures were slightly lower on Monday,
• European markets were slightly higher,
• Asia-Pacific, markets were mixed.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -123.19 points or -0.28%, the S&P closed UP +15.16 points or +0.25% while the Nasdaq closed UP +159.05 points or +0.81%

• Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 32 incliners, 1 declined and 2 flats
• Last week, the S&P 500 rose +1%, the Nasdaq closed +3.3% - records while the Dow lone lagged, closing the week down -0.6%.

Economic Data Docket: Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, October final (0.2% prior); New York Fed one-year inflation expectations, November (2.87% prior)

• The Consumer Price Index report for November, due Wednesday, and the November Producer Price Index report for November, due a day later, will be closely scrutinized. If the reports suggest inflation is stronger than expected, the Fed could leave its key Federal Funds rate at 4.5% to 4.75% and delay another rate cut until the next meeting on Jan. 28-29.

Q4/24: 3 negative and 2 positive closes

• November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
• October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context 

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength: if it hits upside

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$1.39 after Thursday’s -$0.70, Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s -$2.32 and Monday’s +$0.92 with a positive +$1.75 or +6.55% pre-open.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$2.04 after Thursday’s +$0.23, Wednesday’s +$0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.93 and Monday’s -$0.03 with a positive +$1.04 or +2.11% aftermarket

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up $1.36 with a positive +$0.89 or +2.34% aftermarket

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$1.06 after Thursday’s -$1.20 and Wednesday’s -$0.43 with a negative -$0.43 or -1.64% pre-open

Moderna (MRNA) closed up + $1.50 after Thursday’s +$1.31, Tuesday’s -$0.95, Tuesday’s -$1.68 and Monday’s +$1.20 with a negative -$0.04 or -0.09% pre-open

uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$0.86 and Thursday’s +$0.30 with a negative -$0.13 or -1.74% aftermarket

Positive indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket/pre-market dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$2.82 after Thursday’s -$1.63 with a positive +$0.38 or +0.73% pre-open

Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.15 after Thursday’s -$1.63 with a positive +$1.52 or +2.70% aftermarket

The BOTTOM LINE: I am suspicious of the sector’s “froth” this week as it runs while trend-chasing traders will turn-on the sector’s upside and sell.

In the first week of December, the Dow was the lone index in the red, falling about 0.5%, the Nasdaq soared more than 3% and the S&P 500 popped nearly 1%.

In the week ahead (12/9 – 13), a crucial reading of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is slated for release on Wednesday. A reading on wholesale inflation, the Producer Price Index (PPI), will follow on Thursday.

• Referencing the "core" basis, which strips out food and energy prices, CPI is expected to have risen 3.3% over last year in November. This would mark the fourth straight month of a 3.3% reading of core CPI. Monthly core price increases are expected to clock in at 0.3%, also in line with the October gain.

Last week indexes rose to records after data suggested the job market remains solid enough to keep the economy going, but not so strong that it raises immediate worries about inflation.

For the week:

• The S&P 500 is up 57.89 points, or 1%.
• The Dow is down 268.13 points, or 0.6%.
• The Nasdaq is up 641.61 points, or 3.3%.
• The Russell 2000 is down 25.73 points, or 1.1%.

“I remain a skeptic, as electronic trading remains the impetus to, I believe a cell and gene therapy sector getting artificial low” … as proven in past sessions”!

• Trending or bending? …. A little bit of each!

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

• Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
• Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as December “shakes” to years-end.

• I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
• Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even as sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

• The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
• I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.