December 17, 2024 4:49pm

The cell and gene therapy sector reminds us; "Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." ~ Leo Ernest Durocher

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Invest like you're driving on an icy, windy road, not an open highway.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: who is on 1st, what’s on 2nd and cell and gene therapies are on 3rd? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13738

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -267.58 points or -0.61%, the S&P closed DOWN -23.47 points or -0.39% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -64.83 points or -0.32%

  • The Dow entered the history books Tuesday with its 1st 9-day losing streak since the 1970s in sight.            

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • November’s retail sales figure came in better than economists expected …
  • Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% for the month, an acceleration from the upwardly revised 0.5% in October and better than the estimate for 0.5%. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.2%, a touch below the 0.3% estimate. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so the spending pace was ahead of the 0.3% increase in the consumer price index. A 2.6% increase in motor vehicle and parts sales paced the spending, while online shopping rose 1.8%. Miscellaneous sales tumbled 3.5%. On a 12-month basis, receipts were up 3.8%, ahead of the 2.7% CPI inflation rate.
  • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index stayed at 46 in December, lower than economists’ estimates of 47. Any reading under 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor rather than good.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 12 incliners, 20 declined and 3 flats; ending with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats

  • Sector closed up as pitching mechanics overcome batting stances

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was UP +0.47%, the XBI was down -0.17% while the VIX was up +1.18 points or +8.03% at 15.87

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -110.34 points or -0.25%, the S&P closed UP +22.99 points or +0.38% while the Nasdaq closed UP +247.17 points or +1.24%

  • Indexes closed mixed as Nasdaq rose to a record

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Nothing to talk about other than conjecture re rate hikes

Friday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 27 incliners, 7 declined and 1 flat; ending with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats

  • Last week, who went down; went up this …

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was UP +0.64 %, the XBI was up +1.38% while the VIX was up +0.86 points or +6.23% at 14.67

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 3 positive and 9 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 16):

  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.08),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.94 after Monday’s +$2.00),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.50 after Monday’s +$0.67),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.45 after Monday’s -$0.38),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.42 after Monday’s +$1.49),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.35 after Monday’s +$1.00),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.25 after Monday’s +$0.48),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.23),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.14 after Monday’s -$0.31),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.12),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 17):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2,59 after Monday’s -$1.45),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.56 after Monday’s -$0.12),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.16 after Monday’s +$1.47),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.09 after Monday’s +$2.20),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.41 after Monday’s +$0.34),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.39 after Monday’s +$0.46),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.26),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.24),
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.23 after Monday’s -$1.01),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.20 after Monday’s -$0.30),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Indexes fell on Tuesday, with the Dow on track to log its biggest losing streak in 46 years.

  • New week starts with a sector positive close with a follow-on positive on Tuesday negative in league with past weeks moves …
  • Fed policymakers amid almost total conviction that a 0.25% rate cut is coming on Wednesday.

A lot changed as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” who determine the heights or lows of share pricing” … came back to visit.

 

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off the 3rd week of December, the final month of 2024 with

  • Monday positive close with a Tuesday barely positive close …
  • Last week, ends with 5 negative closes
  • The previous week, Monday positive followed by Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes and Friday positive close

 

December is traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget, end of year tax selling
  • Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.
  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.
  • Even with the potential for some market hiccups along the way, the good news is Q4 has historically skewed positively, even after sector earnings kicked the bucket down the road!

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tues: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), uniQure NV (QURE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Friday: Mesoblast (MESO), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE)
  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.