December 19, 2024 4:50pm

Downward again …

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious ...

Never above you, Never below you, Always beside you!!

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +15.37 points or +0.04%, the S&P closed DOWN -5.08 points or -0.09% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -19.92 points or -0.10%

  • Finally, the Dow got it up … while the S&P and Nasdaq dived        

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Sales of previously owned homes rose 4.8% in November compared with October. Sales were 6.1% higher than November 2023, the largest annual gain in 3 years
  • Gross domestic product (GDP)accelerated at a 3.1% seasonally adjusted annualized pace during the July-through-September period, 0.3% point better than the previous estimate and above the 2.9% consensus estimate. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 2/3rds of all activity in the $29.4 trillion U.S. economy, rose 3.7% in the quarter, 0.2% point faster than the prior estimate.
  • Jobless claims totaled 220,000 for the period ending Dec. 14, a decline of 22,000 from the previous period and lower than the estimate for 230,000. The 4-week moving average, which accounts for volatility in the numbers, edged higher to 225,500. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, nudged lower to 1.874 M.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliners, 25 declined and 2 flats; ending with a barely negative close at the close of 16 incliner, 18 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector closed deeper after deep following a barely deep

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.11%, the XBI was down -0.12% while the VIX was also down -3.53 points or -12.78% at 24.09

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”: 

Q4/24 – 3 positive and 11 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 18):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.55 after Wednesday’s -$4.70, Tuesday’s +$1.09 and Monday’s +$2.20),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.30),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$3.57, Tuesday’s +$0.39 and Monday’s +$0.46),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.66 after Wednesday’s -$1.43, Tuesday’s -$0.42 and Monday’s +$1.49),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.36),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.29),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.25 after Wednesday’s -$0.15, Tuesday and Monday’s $0.00)
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.17 after Wednesday’s +$0.46 and Tuesday’s +$0.24),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.11),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.10),

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$4.51),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.20 after Wednesday’s -$2.40 and Tuesday’s -$1.08),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.13 after Wednesday’s -$1.89, Tuesday’s -$0.50 and Monday’s +$0.67),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.04 after Wednesday’s -$3.17, Tuesday’s +$1.56 and Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.95 after Wednesday’s -$8.66, Tuesday’s +$2.59 and Monday’s -$1.45),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.82),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.53 after Wednesday’s -$2.01, Tuesday’s -$0.45 and Monday’s -$0.38),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.51),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.40),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.15),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Cell and gene therapy sector pushed to a negative follow-on close

  • Some say, “A disappointing rate outlook by the Fed sent stocks lower on Wednesday, with the Dow tanking more than 1,100 points.
  • But Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania, viewed the massive pullback as an ultimately “healthy” move for the market.
  • Fed officials this week came as close as they are probably ever going to get to admitting that the aggressive interest rate reduction, they enacted weeks before the 2024 election was a mistake.

While, volatility took a step down to 24.09 on Thursday, with the VIX pulling back after soaring on Wednesday to as high as 28.27, reflecting heightened investor uncertainty over the path of interest rates.

  • Just with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.566% on Thursday after climbing more than 13 basis points to cross 4.50% after the last Fed meeting of the year Wednesday.

The cell and gene therapy sector stocks kicked off the 3rd week of December, the final month of 2024 with

  • Monday positive close with a Tuesday barely positive close followed by a Wednesday’s deeply negative with yet another Thursday negative close …
  • Last week, ends with 5 negative closes
  • The previous week, Monday's positive close was followed by Thursday and Wednesday, Tuesday’s negative closes and Friday positive close

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • They had better, capital markets are NOT looking good, floundering is an appropriate word on follow-on offerings.

December has been a traditionally a good month for stocks, yet I see the sector range-bound and taking some hits into the end of 2024.

  • Never forget, end of year tax selling
  • Portfolio managers are addressing rotations as year comes to years-end.
  • I keep writing about uncertainty and skepticism … and coming realities.

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: Mesoblast (MESO), Moderna (MRNA) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Precigen (PGEN)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), uniQure NV (QURE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.