January 2, 2025 5:06pm

Thursday’s trading moves come after the sector ended 2024 on a cold and bloodied floor

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -151.95 points or -0.36%, the S&P closed DOWN -13.08 points or -0.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -30.00 points or -0.16%

  • Indexes reversed course on the 1st trading session

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Jobless claims totaled 211,000 for the week ending Dec. 28, down 9,000 from the upwardly revised level of the prior period and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 225,000. On continuing claims, which run a week behind, the level fell from what had been a three-year peak, down to 1.844 million, or a decrease of 52,000.
  • Manufacturing activity in December edged lower and held in contraction territory, according to a report Thursday from S&P Global.          

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 31 incliners, 2 declined and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats

  • Valuations and sentiment have swung from the gutter to the sidewalk

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +0.70%, the XBI was up +1.48% while the VIX was up +0.59 points or +3.39% at 17.94

 

Wednesday was a holiday – New Years Day

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -29.51 points or -0.07%, the S&P closed DOWN -25.31 points or -0.43% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -175.89 points or -0.90%

  • Indexes closed down on final day of 2024

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Despite the strong year-to-date performance, the “Street” is entering the final day of 2024 on sour note. December has been a weak stretch for equities as investors took profits in some of 2024′s biggest winners and fears mount over rising rates into year-end.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 20 incliners, 11 declined and 3 flats; ending with a barely positive close at the close of 16 incliner, 15 decliners and 4 flat

  • Sentiment was traded into by uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” and conviction have been ripped from our vocabulary

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.54%, the XBI was up +0.17 % while the VIX was down -0.05 points or -0.29% at 17.35

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -418.48 points or -0.97%, the S&P closed DOWN -63.90 points or -1.07% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -235.25 points or -1.19%

  • Indexes declined on Monday, in one of the last few trading sessions of 2024, potentially putting a sour ending on a banner year for investors.
  • The market closed Wednesday in observance of New Year’s Day.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Chicago purchasing managers index for December did miss expectations on Monday, coming in at 36.9. Economists surveyed were expecting a reading of 42.2.

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 3 incliners, 30 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sentiment and conviction have been ripped from our vocabulary

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.85%, the XBI was down -1.46% while the VIX was up +1.45 points or +9.09% at 17.40

 

Q2 – 1 holiday and 1 positive close

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes             
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (12 of 12): Wednesday was New Years Day

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.58 after Tuesday’s  -$1.20 after Monday’s -$1.25),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.20 after Monday’s -$1.15),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.69 after Tuesday’s -$0.70 after Monday’s -$1.96),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.18 after Monday’s +$0.06),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.27),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.10),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.07),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.47 after Monday’s -$1.32),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.05),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.04 after Tuesday’s +$0.18 after Monday’s +$0.20),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.02 after Tuesday’s+$0.40 after Monday’s -$3.58),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$ after Tuesday’s$0.00 after Monday’s +$0.27) Wednesday was New Years Day
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 21):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.71 after Monday’s -$1.37),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.81 after Tuesday’s -$1.24 after Monday’s +$3.51),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.56 after Tuesday’s+$0.26),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.42 after Tuesday’s +$2.20 after Monday’s -$0.74)
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.39 after Tuesday’s +$0.44),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.37),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$1.32).
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.35),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.35 after Tuesday’s +$0.48),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.30),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I wrote it this a.m., with a whole New Year group of expectations.

  • In January be selective in BUYs, let go of SELLs … share pricing “blossoms” are coming but. Q4/24 earnings are coming

2025 is here and it's time to talk about the January Barometer… think about this one …

  • The concept of the barometer is simple: If stocks are higher in January, they should be higher for the year. Likewise, if stocks are lower in January, they'll be lower for the year. <TheStreet>
  • It works most of the time. The Stock Trader's Almanac says it's been right 84% of the time since 1950.
  • It does suggest — based on history — the environments an investor might face in making a buy or sell decision.

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public.

What could 2025, and even 2026, have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Mesoblast (MESO) and Intellia Therapeutics NTLA)
  • Wednesday: holiday
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Monday: Cellectis SDA (CLLS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: holiday
  • Tuesday: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO, Mesoblast (MESO) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Vericel (VCEL)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.