January 6, 2025 8:11am

Pipeline transparency is the nail; capital market access is the hammer

Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive and 1 Negative Indications

The week includes December jobs, ADP and JOLTS data and ahead could be another opportunity for traders to recalibrate their expectations of the sturdiness of Fed rate plans

Another short trading week, the NYSE will be closed Thursday to mourn the death of former President Carter

Never leave an investor uninform

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today.

 

Friday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: 2nd session 2025. Thank you “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” for the upside. With the make a buck mantra of BUY the lows now, so we can capitalize SELL ‘em later. So … be ready!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13754

 

Monday; the pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.40% or (+178 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.83% or (+50 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +1.10% or (+237 points)

  • Futures rose Monday,
  • European markets were higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell.

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Friday: The Dow closed UP +339.86 points or +0.80%, the S&P closed UP +73.92 points or +1.26% while the Nasdaq closed UP +340.88 points or +1.17%
  • Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Economic Data Docket: S&P final U.S. services PMI and Factory orders

 

Q1/25: January – 2nd positive sessions and 1 holiday

  • Q4/24: December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Positive Indications:

  • AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$0.29 after Thursday’s -0.08 with a positive +$0.39 or +2.42% aftermarket
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.41 after Thursday’s +$2.07, Tuesday’s +$0.71 and Monday’s -$1.37 with a positive +$0.41 or +1% aftermarket
  • Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.48 after Thursday’s +$0.81, Tuesday’s -$1.24 and Monday’s +$3.51 with a positive +$0.08 or +0.40% aftermarket

Negative Indications:

  • uniQure NV (QURE) closed down -$0.11 and shows a pre-open negative of -$0.27 or +1.49%

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What is the word for 2025 – EXPECTATION.

  • Expectations are going to be a clear, recurring theme of 2025, and we may get our first taste of disappointment as data starts rolling in.

Traders will be looking for clues about the strength of the economy and the sturdiness of Fed rate plans. The week ahead could be another opportunity for traders to recalibrate their expectations. < Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management>

  • “Data shows us that unemployment is climbing and people are having a hard time finding jobs. There are cracks in hiring that could re-appear at any time,” she told CNBC. “It’ll be important to watch yields too. The 10-year yield is near a high of 4.6%, and jobs days have rattled bond investors in the past.”

The December jobs report is due out Friday, and will be one of the last key pieces of data before the Fed meeting at the end of this month. Investors are also watching the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Tuesday and December ADP Employment Survey Wednesday.

Also, earnings from Q4/24 are due …

Some believe that "pragmatic optimism" will "set the tone for 2025," outlining that they expects "a return to normal volatility" and "an average year for stocks." He adds that his market outlook for the new year is high single-digit returns from the S&P 500. He suggests the good news may already be priced in. < ADAM Turnquist, LPL Financial chief technical strategist>

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

2024 saw minimal life return to the IPO (initial public offering) and secondary markets, which saw companies deterred and struggle.

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

"You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.