January 6, 2025 4:43pm

“Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs have camped-out” while higher yields (^FVX, ^TNX, ^TYX) present a risk to share safety investment

Another short week to consider exits as sustainability wavers?

News: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s (RARE +$1.16) the European Commission (EC) has extended the Evkeeza (evinacumab) approval to include children aged 6 months to less than 5 years with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH); a rare and life-threatening genetic disorder characterized by extremely high levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) from birth.

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't by sticking to the FACTS!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -25.57 points or -0.06%, the S&P closed UP +32.91 points or +0.55% while the Nasdaq closed UP +243.30 points or +1.24%

  • Indexes closed mixed with the Nasdaq spurting

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Market sentiment on Monday was also boosted by a Washington Post report saying President-elect Trump’s tariff plan would be narrower than anticipated, covering only critical imports.
  • investors awaited the release of key monthly jobs data later this week.    

Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 25 incliners, 8 declined and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat

  • Is heightened volatility a-comin’?

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +0.14%, the XBI was down -0.20% while the VIX was down -0.08 points or -0.50% at 16.05

 

Q1/25 – 1 holiday and 3 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Monday’s Closing Down (12 of 12):

  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.55 after Friday’s -$0.29)
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.20),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.16 after Friday’s -$0.48),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.13 after Friday’s +$0.66
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.71),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.28 after Friday’s -$0.09)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.26 after Friday’s $0.00)
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.22),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.08 after Friday’s +$0.36
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.24)
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.02)
  • Generation Bio (BBIO -$0.01)

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (10 of 22):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.41 after Friday’s -$0.41
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.119 after Friday’s +$1.15),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.16 after Friday’s +$0.35)
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.98 after Friday’s +$0.58),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.84 after Friday’s +$0,24),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.74 after Friday’s +$0.49),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.67 after Friday’s -$0.09
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.135),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.42 after Friday’s -$0.09),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.39),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I haven’t changed my tone …

ENYOY the HIGH! I wrote yesterday a.m., a whole New Year group of expectations are coming and many are NOT going to happen!

2025 is here and it's time to talk about the January Barometer… think about this one …

  • The concept of the barometer is simple: If stocks are higher in January, they should be higher for the year. Likewise, if stocks are lower in January, they'll be lower for the year. <TheStreet>
  • It works most of the time. The Stock Trader's Almanac says it's been right 84% of the time since 1950.
  • It does suggest — based on history — the environments an investor might face in making a buy or sell decision.

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public.

What could 2025, and even 2026, have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Friday: Vericel (VCEL), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: AxoGen (AXGN), Mesoblast (MESO) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Friday: AxoGen (AXGN), uniQure NV (QURE) and Mesoblast (MESO)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.