January 15, 2025 8:08am

JP Morgan Healthcare Conference – day 3

 

Breaking: The consumer price index increased 0.4% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Economists had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%. However, excluding food and energy, the core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, a notch down from the month before and slightly better than the 3.3% forecast. The core measure rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, also 0.1 percentage point less than expected.

Pre-open Indications: Still, many on the slippery slope, with a few ascensions  

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Tuesday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: back in the bag … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13767

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Non-binding Acquisition Proposal from Biogen (BIIB) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13763

 

Wednesday; the pre-open Dow futures are UP +1.06% or (+455 points), the S&P futures are UP +1.06% or (+65 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +1.35% or (+279 points)

  • Stock futures gained on Wednesday,
  • European markets traded higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +221.16 points or +0.52%, the S&P closed UP +6.69 points or +0.11% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -43.71 points or -0.23

Economic Data Docket: Consumer price index (CPI)

  • Economists are forecasting headline CPI to have risen 0.3% in December, according to Dow Jones.

 

Q1/25: January – 1 holiday, 1 market close, 4 negative and 4 positive closes

  • Q4/24: December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

I’d like to mention but, insight is cloudy; there are a few to keep an eye on … ALNY and IONS = positives? And Negatives – VCEL and BPMC

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Watch-out below as an up/down week begins on another downdraft.

Yesterday, sunk again the cell and gene therapy sector to another abyss; as the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference continues into day 3.

January ‘25 recap:

  • 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
  • 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats

An issue for the sector, the rising 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) reached a 14-month high at 4.79%, pressuring stocks and creating competition for equity investments.

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 are due … as downdrafts follow as proven in past sessions!

  • Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.