January 15, 2025 4:27pm

As “Uncle algo and his electronic trading systems” accessed the sector

Today’s economics work in “our” favor, as PPI yesterday and CPI this morning, came in slightly below expectations

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: more economics … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13768

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +703.27 points or +1.65%, the S&P closed UP +1.07 points or +1.83% while the Nasdaq closed UP +466.84 points or +2.45%

  • Indexes surged on Wednesday after the latest consumer price index report showed core inflation unexpectedly slowed in December

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • December’s consumer price index showed that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. This was a notch down from the previous month and lower than the 3.3% estimated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Headline inflation increased 2.9% on a 12-month basis, in line with forecasts.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield sharply dropped on the back of the CPI report and was last down 14 basis points at 4.651%.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 30 incliners, 3 declined and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats

  • Heightened volatility continues, now to the upside

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.85%, the XBI was up +1.89% while the VIX was down -2.47 points or -13.21% at 16.24

 

Q1/25 – 1 holiday, 1 market close, 4 negative and 5 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (3 of 3):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.12 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 after Monday’s +$0.12),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.18),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.04 after Tuesday’s $0.00),

Flat (3)

  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBH),
  • Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (10 of xx):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$10.50 after Tuesday’s -$17.76 after Monday’s +$2.29)
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.33 after Tuesday’s +$0.80 after Monday’s +$15.93),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.96 after Tuesday’s -$3.14 after Monday’s +$1.09),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.76 after Tuesday’s -$0.56),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.68),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.55 after Tuesday’s -$0.84),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS +$0.52 after Tuesday’s -$2.25 after Monday’s +$1.48),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.49),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.18),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.44 after Tuesday’s -$0.70 after Monday’s +$0.36),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: J.P. Morgan’s healthcare investment conference runs from Monday through Thursday after 2 years of unprecedented underperformance for the healthcare sector.

  • Sector companies have been issuing prelim (un-audited) revenue, guidance, pipeline for JP Morgan Healthcare conference

Biotech/Healthcare stocks popped in the 3rd session after downdrafts showing at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco

  • Bless the portfolio that the conference has been muted in attendance and is all but off!

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public.

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can "sink" the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)  
  • Tuesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.