January 16, 2025 4:34pm

As JP Morgan Healthcare conference ends a "dud" after “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” clipped the previous sessions upside

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -68.42 points or -0.16%, the S&P closed DOWN -12.58 points or -0.21% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -172.94 points or -0.89%

  • Indexes drifted lower following a mixed set of earnings reports ending a 3-day winning streak

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • the Labor Department said initial jobless claims for the week ending Jan. 11 totaled 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week and higher than the forecast for 210,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, declined slightly to 1.86 million.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pulled back sharply from a 14-month high reached earlier in the week. It last hovered around 4.623%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliners, 24 declined and 2 flats; ending with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats

  • Heightened volatility continues, after the upside; yet another downslide

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.46%, the XBI was down -0.66% while the VIX was up +0.22 points or +1.36% at 16.34

 

Q1/25 – 1 holiday, 1 market close, 5 negative and 5 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.85 after Wednesday’s +$10.50, Tuesday’s -$17.76 and Monday’s +$2.29)
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.20 after Wednesday’s -$1.12, Tuesday’s -$0.95 and Monday’s +$0.12),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.01),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.94 after Wednesday’s +$2.33, Tuesday’s +$0.80 and Monday’s +$15.93),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS -$0.93 after Wednesday’s +$0.52, Tuesday’s -$2.25 and Monday’s +$1.48),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.51 after Wednesday’s +$0.55 and Tuesday’s -$0.84),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.43),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.37),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.49),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.29 and Wednesday’s -$0.18),

Flat (3)

  • Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 10):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.68),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.61),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.25),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.22 after Wednesday’s +$0.76 and Tuesday’s -$0.56),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.11),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.0583),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.03 after Wednesday’s +$0.47, Tuesday’s +$0.05 and Monday’s +$0.18),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.02),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.01)
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.01),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: J.P. Morgan’s healthcare investment conference ends today, Thursday after 2 years of unprecedented underperformance for the healthcare sector.

  • With a dud ending! Don't blame the conference, its the economy stupid!

Sector companies had also been issuing prelim (un-audited) revenue, guidance, pipeline for JP Morgan Healthcare conference.

 

For the week: so far …

  • The S&P 500 is up 110.30 points, or 1.9%.
  • The Dow is up 1,214.68 points, or 2.9%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 176.66 points, or 0.9%.
  • The Russell 2000 is up 77.56 points, or 3.5%.

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public.

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)  
  • Tuesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.