January 21, 2025 8:01am

Key risk to cell and gene therapy sector, upcoming earnings season

News: Moderna (MRNA +$1.17 or +3.44%) through the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), has awarded the company $590 M to accelerate the development of an mRNA-based vaccine program aimed at preventing the spread of the H5N1 virus, also known as bird flu, in humans.

A light economic calendar is set to greet investors with updates on activity in the services and manufacturing sector as well as an update on consumer sentiment slated for release.

Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive, 2 Negative and 2 Sell into Strength

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Friday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: the green on the screen as week closes, thankfully … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13771

 

Tuesday; the pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.42% or (+185 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.34% or (+20 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.41% or (+89 points)

  • Stock futures advanced on Tuesday, 1/21/25
  • European stocks opened slightly higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Monday markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday with attention focused on President Donald Trump's inauguration.

Friday: The Dow closed UP +334.70 points or +0.78%, the S&P closed UP +59.32 points or +1% while the Nasdaq closed UP +291.91 points or +1.51%

Last week’s Friday’s session capped off the best trading week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since the 2024 election.

Economic Data Docket:  Nada

 

Q1/25: January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 5 negative and 6 positive closes

  • Q4/24: December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) closed up +$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.03, Wednesday’s +$0.47, Tuesday’s +$0.05 and Monday’s +$0.18 with a positive +$0.03 or +1.15% aftermarket.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.23 after Thursday’s +$1.26 and Wednesday’s +$0.68 with a positive +$0.87 or +2.15% aftermarket

 

Negative Indications:

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$6.10 after Thursday’s -$0.94, Wednesday’s +$2.33, Tuesday’s +$0.80 and last Monday’s +$15.93 with a negative -$0.34 or -0.31% pre-open

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$2.72 after Thursday’s -$1.20, Wednesday’s -$1.12, Tuesday’s -$0.95 and Monday’s +$0.12 with a negative -$0.26 or -0.44% pre-open

 

Positive Indications:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$2.89 after Thursday’s -$1.85, Wednesday’s +$10.50, Tuesday’s -$17.76 and Monday’s +$2.29 with a positive +$3.23 or +1.31% pre-open

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.85 after Thursday’s -$0.93, Wednesday’s +$0.52, Tuesday’s -$2.25 and Monday’s +$1.48 with a positive +$1.49 or +4.74% pre-open

Moderna (MRNA) closed up +$0.30 after Thursday’s -$1.01 with a positive +$1.17 or +3.44% pre-open

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Brace for fluctuations in share pricing …

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, also known as the fear gauge, was down slightly at 15.73 early Tuesday. That’s comfortably below the 20 level where it held for most of the past year. <Barron’s>

Short term, markets and the cell and gene therapy sector will have to contend with upcoming earnings reports as the usual reporting pushes into the “dump”.

 

January ‘25 recap:

  • 1/20 – Inauguration Day, markets were closed
  • 1/17 – Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/16 – Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/15 – Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
  • 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

An issue for the sector, the rising 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) reached a 14-month high at 4.79%, pressuring stocks and creating competition for equity investments.

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 are due … as downdrafts follow as proven in past sessions!

  • Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector has …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!” <Me>

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be always asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.