January 21, 2025 4:33pm

However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024!

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

Never above you, never below you, always beside you!

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Post Inauguration, a new barometer … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13772

 

Monday, markets were closed for President Trump’s inauguration and Martin Luther King Day

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +538.22 points or +1.24%, the S&P closed UP +52.60 points or +0.88% while the Nasdaq closed UP +126.58 points or +0.64%

  • Indexes popped higher as the dollar's gains and losses signal a new normal for markets
  • The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell about 4 basis points to around 4.57%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The next batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was positive with 28 incliners, 5 declined and 2 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat

  • Sector breadth was strong

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +3.45%, the XBI was up +2.43% while the VIX was down -0.78 points or -4.93% at 15.03

 

Some positive news: Moderna (MRNA) received a $590 M award with the stock is trading higher (+$1.83 or +5.37% to $35.89) with session trading volume of 9.089 M. On Friday, MRNA announced the award from the U.S. HHS to accelerate the development of mRNA-based pandemic influenza vaccines. The agreement will expand clinical studies for up to 5 additional subtypes of pandemic influenza.

 

Q1/25 – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 5 negative and 7 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Monday was a holiday

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (6 of 6):

  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.21),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.14 after Friday’s +$0.11),
  • Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.02 after Friday’s -$0.02),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.01),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.01 after Friday’s -$0.01),

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$18.72 after Friday’s -$2.89
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.91 after Friday’s +$6.10),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.83 after Friday’s+$0.30),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.34 after Friday’s -$0.31),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.32 after Friday’s +$0.10).
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.28 after Friday’s -$0.85),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS +$1.25 after Friday’s -$0.85),
  • Beam therapeutics (BEAM +$1.09),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.98 after Friday’s +$0.23),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  another new week closer to January’s end after many “events”

  • As I wrote this a.m., “Short term, markets and the cell and gene therapy sector will have to contend with upcoming earnings reports as the usual reporting pushes into the “dump”.”

 

January ‘25 recap: understand the “flow” …

  • 1/21 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/20 – Monday, markets were closed
  • 1/17 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/16 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/15 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
  • 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/1 - Wednesday - markets were closed

 

 “Our” universe is to GROW!

  • Licensing transactions are a key business component for biotech companies. Smaller players will often strike deals with big pharmaceutical companies that have the cash to further develop, manufacture and commercialize their products. In return, biotechs usually get an up-front payment and are eligible for future milestone payments and/or royalties on sales.
  • Beyond his nominations, investors in biotech stocks will undoubtedly be watching how Trump handles pharmacy benefit companies re drug pricing.
  • The appointments of Oz and Musk could also prove to be a boon for biotech stocks working on obesity medications. Kennedy is something more of a wild card, however – he will be slapped down if he wavers from his lane!
  • Sector companies had also been issuing prelim (un-audited) revenue, guidance, pipeline for last week's JP Morgan Healthcare conference.

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases
  • They had better, capital markets have been floundering on follow-on offerings.

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space - rates?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in partners and pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday, markets were closed
  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: bluebird Bio (BLUE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), and Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday, markets were closed
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.