February 3, 2025 6:32pm

A shortened version … due to personal circumstances

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

VIP: I will be partially unavailable in the week 2/3 – 2/7/25 due my “better half or the babe” today undergoing successful surgery yet will continue to be hospitalized – say a prayer please!

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -122.75 points or -0.28%, the S&P closed DOWN -45.96 points or -0.76% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -235.49 points or -1.20%

  • Indexes fell on Monday in reaction to the Trump administration's scheduled tariff rollout against Canada and China, though the major averages pared heavier losses after President Trump said the US would delay duties on Mexican imports by a month.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The ISM manufacturing index posted a reading of 50.9%, representing the share of companies reporting growth for the month. That was 1.7 percentage points above the December level and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 50%. It reversed a trend of 26 straight months in contraction as the best number since September 2022. Within the survey, the employment index leaped to 50.3, a gain of 4.9 points, while new orders and production also posted gains. The prices index rose to 54.9%, up 2.4 points.

Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.81%, the XBI was down -1.25% while the VIX was up +2.19 points or +13.33% at 16.62

 

Q1/25 – February – 1 negative close

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 – December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Monday’s Closing Down (10 of 25)  

  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.87 after Friday’s -$1.62),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.59 after Friday’s -$0.45
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.03 after Friday’s -$1.52
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.78),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.72)
  • BioLife Solutions -$0.68 after Friday’s -$0.40),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.33 after Friday’s -$1.36),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.29 after Friday’s +$0.26),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.29),
  • Regenxbio (-$0.25 after Friday’s +$0.17)

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing Up (8 of 8):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.24 after Friday’s -$5.85
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.52 after Friday’s -$0.71),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.39 after Friday’s -$0.37),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.23 after Friday’s -$1.42
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.04),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.015),
  • UniQure NV (QURE +$0.01),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.01),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Backlash from politial/economic tariffs 

Monday's session ended in negative territory led by the Nasdaq falling 1.2% …

  • In response to the Trump administration's deployment of tariffs over the weekend. Following talks with US officials, Mexico's President Sheinbaum announced earlier today that the tariffs on imports from the country have been delayed until March 1.
  • Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says that President Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada will be delayed 30 days. The announcement comes after a "good call" between Trudeau and Trump.

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

For the year:

  • The S&P 500 is up 112.94 points, or 1.9%.
  • The Dow is up 1,877.69 points, or 4.4%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 81.16 points, or 0.4%.
  • The Russell 2000 is up 28.26 points, or 1.3%.

 

 As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.