February 5, 2025 4:46pm

As investors looked past the trade/tariff turmoil

A shortened version … due to personal circumstances

Earnings: MDXG, BPMC, IONS, SAGE, MRNA and ALNY – so far <see The

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

 

VIP: I will be partially unavailable in the week 2/3 – 2/7/25 due my “better half or the babe” underwent successful surgery yet will continue to be hospitalized – say a prayer please!

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +317.24 points or +0.71%, the S&P closed UP +23.60 points or +0.39% while the Nasdaq closed UP +38.31 points or +0.19%

  • Indexes closed higher, again

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The ISM services index posted a reading of 52.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from December and below the Dow Jones forecast for 54.3%. The survey gauges the percentage of businesses showing expansion. New orders dropped 3.1 points, business activity was off 3.5 points and prices fell 4 points, though the index was still a robust 60.4% and indicative of ongoing price pressures. Employment increased 1 point to 52.3%.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 4 decliners and 5 flats

  • 2 sessions in a row

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +3.52%, the XBI was up +2.13% while the VIX was down -1.44 points or -8.37% at 15.77

 

Q1/25 – February – 1 negative and 2 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 – December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes

  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing UP (10 of 26)

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.31 after Tuesday’s -$3.55 and Monday’s +$3.24)
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.37 after Tuesday’s -$0.37 and Monday’s +$0.52),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.07),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.73 after Tuesday’s -$0.49 and Monday’ s -$1.59),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.53 after Tuesday’s -$0.49 and Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.19 after Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.89),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.81 after Tuesday’s -$2.38 and Monday’s -$2.87),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.81 after Tuesday’s -$0.61),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.80),

Flat (5)

  • bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

Wednesday’s Closing DOWN (4 of 4):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.03 after Tuesday’s -$1.90 after Monday’s -$1.03),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.58 after Tuesday’s -$0.34),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.03),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01)

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending Monday's negative close.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” stayed its visit.

  • Finally, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell nine basis points to hit 4.42%, its lowest level since December 2024 on Wednesday.

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.