February 7, 2025 5:48pm

Thursday and Friday’s losses wiped out most of the gains for the week

Earnings: MDXG, BPMC, IONS, SAGE, MRNA and ALNY – so far <see The Bottom Line>

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The week in review

 

VIP:  my “better half or the babe” who underwent successful surgery was able to be sent home after the week hospitalized yet will continue to be on "serious" light duty, I wll see if she listens, dought it !

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -444.23 points or -0.99%, the S&P closed DOWN -57.58 points or -0.95% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -268.59 points or -1.36%

  • Indexes closed lower on Friday as a mix of news related to tariffs and inflation worried traders to close out the week after President Trump said he was planning reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. This could mean raising tariff levels across the board to equal rates charged to the U.S.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Consumer sentiment fell in February to 67.8, according to a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Economists had expected 71.3.
  • The report’s respondents anticipate the one-year inflation rate to hit 4.3%, marking a rise of 1% point from the previous month and its highest level since November 2023.
  • The U.S. economy added just 143,000 jobs in January, but the unemployment rate fell to 4%.
  • Jobs growth in January was down significantly from an upwardly revised 307,000 in December and missed consensus expectations of 169,000 for the month.
  • The report made significant revisions to 2024 totals. The revisions, which the BLS does each year, reduced the jobs count by 589,000. A preliminary adjustment back in August 2024 had indicated 818,000

Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative with 10 incliners, 22 decliners and 3 flat ending with a negative close of 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -2.89%, the XBI was down -2.13% while the VIX was UP +1.04, points or +6.71% at 16.54

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -125.65 points or -0.28%, the S&P closed UP +22.09 points or +0.36% while the Nasdaq closed UP +99.66 points or +0.51%

  • Indexes closed mixed jobs report and earnings coming

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Labor costs, productivity come in below expectations. Unit labor costs, which measure compensation minus productivity, rose at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3% for the October-through-December period in 2024. That was smaller than the 3.3% Dow Jones estimate and brought the cost increase over the four-quarter period to 2.7%. Labor productivity rose 1.2% for the period, below the 1.4% estimate, and brought the annual rate down to 2.3%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative close at the close of 13 incliner, 18 decliners and 4 flats ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.77%, the XBI was down -1.34% while the VIX was down -0.33 points or -2.10% at 15.44

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +317.24 points or +0.71%, the S&P closed UP +23.60 points or +0.39% while the Nasdaq closed UP +38.31 points or +0.19%

  • Indexes closed higher, again

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The ISM services index posted a reading of 52.8%, down 1.2 percentage points from December and below the Dow Jones forecast for 54.3%. The survey gauges the percentage of businesses showing expansion. New orders dropped 3.1 points, business activity was off 3.5 points and prices fell 4 points, though the index was still a robust 60.4% and indicative of ongoing price pressures. Employment increased 1 point to 52.3%.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 4 decliners and 5 flats

  • 2 sessions in a row

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +3.52%, the XBI was up +2.13% while the VIX was down -1.44 points or -8.37% at 15.77

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +134.13 points or +0.30%, the S&P closed UP +43.31 points or +0.72% while the Nasdaq closed UP +262.06 points or +1.35%

  • Indexes closed higher

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Job openings declined more than analysts expected in December, hitting 7.6 million, their lowest level since September.
  • The Chinese government slapped tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. imports of coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% higher duties on U.S. imports of coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% higher duties on crude oil, farm equipment and selected cars, effective Feb. 10.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 8 decliners and 3 flats ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.96%, the XBI was up +1.15% while the VIX was down -1.41 points or -7.57% at 17.21

 

 Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -122.75 points or -0.28%, the S&P closed DOWN -45.96 points or -0.76% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -235.49 points or -1.20%

  • Indexes fell on Monday in reaction to the Trump administration's scheduled tariff rollout against Canada and China, though the major averages pared heavier losses after President Trump said the US would delay duties on Mexican imports by a month.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The ISM manufacturing index posted a reading of 50.9%, representing the share of companies reporting growth for the month. That was 1.7 percentage points above the December level and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 50%. It reversed a trend of 26 straight months in contraction as the best number since September 2022. Within the survey, the employment index leaped to 50.3, a gain of 4.9 points, while new orders and production also posted gains. The prices index rose to 54.9%, up 2.4 points.

Monday’s advance/decline line ending with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.81%, the XBI was down -1.25% while the VIX was up +2.19 points or +13.33% at 16.62

 

Q1/25 – February – 3 negative and 2 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing UP (2 of 2)

  • Mesoblast (MESP +$0.80),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.11),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 31): 

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$4.64 after Thursday’s -$0.75 after Wednesday’s -$3.03 after Tuesday’s -$1.90 after Monday’s -$1.03),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.06 after Thursday’s +$1.94 after Wednesday’s +$5.31 after Tuesday’s -$3.55 and Monday’s+$3.24)
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.58 after Thursday’s +$0.08),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.41),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.35 after Thursday’s -$2.10 after Wednesday’s +$2.37 after Tuesday’s -$0.37 and Monday’s +$0.52),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.23 after Thursday’s -$0.54 after Wednesday’s +$1.53 after Tuesday’s -$0.49 and Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.01 after Thursday’s -$1.37 after Wednesday’s +$0.81 after Tuesday’s -$2.38 and Monday’s -$2.87),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.90 after Thursday’s -$1.61 after Wednesday’s +$1.73 after Tuesday’s -$0.49 and Monday’ s -$1.59),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.43 after Thursday’s +$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$1.19 after Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s +$0.39),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.40 after Thursday’s -$0.27),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Friday and Thursday session “flipped the bird” negative after Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending Monday's negative close.

  • I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door after its previous visit.

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

•              "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

•              If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”

•              2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

•              "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: Mesoblast (MESO) and Precigen (PGEN)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
  • Wednesday: not listed
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: Not listed
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.