February 12, 2025 7:58am

When there is blood on the street, it’s time to BUY or was it the reverse of words

Suppositions - a formal word for an idea that you think is true although you may not be able to prove

Earnings: Losses, revenue lags, clinical progress with some program uncertainty, a dearth all followed by estimate misses with an although see … Companies in my headlights

I am NOT often wrong and always consider doubt of some market and sector share pricing movements

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Tuesday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: the sector gets further mutilated … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13800

 

Wednesday; the pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.13% or (-61 points), the S&P futures DOWN -0.07% or (-4 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.10% or (+22 points)

  • Stock futures fell slightly on Wednesday as investors awaited January’s consumer inflation report,
  • European markets were slightly higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +123.24 points or +0.28%, the S&P closed UP +2.06 points or +0.03% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -70.41 points or -0.36%

Economic Data Docket: consumer price index (CPI) report

  • January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will serve as the latest test of whether inflation pressures have eased as investors debate if and when the Fed will cut interest rates in 2025.
  • Headline inflation is expected to have grown 0.3% from the prior month, a slight deceleration from the 0.4% monthly increase seen in December and 2.9% from 12 months earlier.
  • testimony from Fed Chair Powell’s before the House Committee on Financial Services. Powell testified Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee that policymakers were in no hurry to make further interest rate cuts.

 

Q1/25: February – 5 negative and 2 positive closes

  • January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24:

  • December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

52-week lows:

  • Generation Bio (GBIO) at $0.68
  • Moderna (MRNA) at $31.34
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) at $4.92
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $9.08
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) at $1.28
  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $2.34

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

  • Yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as CPI’s expectation in the pre-open waits for the all-clear alarm …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just unknowns.

Although:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$5.07 with a positive +$0.11 or +0.04% pre-open

AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$0.20 with a negative -$0.21 or -1.20% pre-open

Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) closed down -$0.25 with a positive +0.09 or +2.47% pre-open

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP closed up +$0.21 with a positive +$1.35 or +3.41% pre-open

Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.44 with a positive +$0.76 or +4.17% aftermarket

Moderna (MRNA) closed down -$0.94 with a positive +$0.36 or +1.16% pre-open

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The coming batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject.

However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024 at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference!

Thinks speculative behavior in the current bull market has ascended to a level beyond common sense

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, as sector companies will seek opportunities to sell to better financed companies that can "deal with these additional costs associated of R&D and escalating SG&A.

 

NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

 

Prepare for earnings and more market volatility related to inflation oriented econs …

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Thursday, 2/13
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE). Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 2/25
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.