February 14, 2025 4:57pm

As ½ of February erodes with inflation updates, tariff/trade levy reveals, retail data and as earnings reports roll-in

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The Week in Review

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

My “better half, the babe” was released form Milford hospital with a 4 – 5-week recovery as long as she walks, which slows her down from the past running 2 miles a day and stationary bike for 6 miles daily – but it will take time as Drs. give her a VERY positive and clean report. Prayers work along with my newest role as a nurse "practicer", cook and cup washer and triple-duty gofer!

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -165.97 points or -0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.47 points or -0.01% while the Nasdaq closed UP +81.13 points or +0.41%

  • Indexes were mixed on Friday as investors weighed the latest on the global trade and inflation fronts
  • The 10-year Treasury yield continued to move lower on Friday, continued to move lower on Friday, recently dropping more than 5 basis points lower to 4.472%
  • For the week, the S&P 500 is up +1.6% and the Dow +0.7% and the Nasdaq is +2.5% higher.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, worse than the estimate for a 0.2% decline. Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase, while the “control” sales group slid 0.8%. Import prices accelerated 0.3% in January, in line with expectations for the largest one-month move since April 2024.

Friday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 11 decliners and 4 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -0.49%, the XBI was up +0.64 while the VIX was down -0.31 points or -2.05% at 14.79

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +342.87 points or +0.77%, the S&P closed UP +63.10 points or +1.04% while the Nasdaq closed UP +265.69 points or +1.50%

  • Indexes rose Thursday as new inflation data and updates on U.S. tariff plans appeared to ease some concern around inflationary pressures and global trade tensions.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • January's Producer Price Index (PPI) print also came out hotter than expected, as prices rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell after the inflation data and was recently down by more than 10 basis points to 4.531%.

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative close at the close of 14 incliner, 19 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 23 incliners, 10 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +1.57%, the XBI was up +0.83 while the VIX was down -0.79 points or -4.97% at 15.10

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -235.09 points or -0.50%, the S&P closed DOWN -16.53 points or -0.27% while the Nasdaq closed UP +6.09 points or +0.03%

  • Indexes closed mixed as interest rates spiked Wednesday after consumer prices rose more than expected in January, raising concern that inflation may reignite
  • Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, jumped to more than 4.65% from 4.54%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The hotter than expected CPI confirms investors’ anxiety regarding too-hot inflation that will keep the Fed on the sidelines (as opposed to cutting rates)
  • January’s consumer price index jumped 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.3% for the past 12 months, both higher than expected.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 12 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.23%, the XBI was up +0.92% while the VIX was down -0.27 points or -1.68% at 15.75

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +123.24 points or +0.28%, the S&P closed UP +2.06 points or +0.03% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -70.41 points or -0.36%

  • Indexes closed mixed over direction of the economy amid U.S. tariffs and the possible escalation of a global trade war

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Fed Chair Powell earlier addressed the Senate Banking Committee and signaled the Fed does not need to move quickly to ease monetary policy.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 30 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 4 incliners, 29 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.91%, the XBI was down -1.29% while the VIX was UP +0.13 points or +0.82% at 15.94

 

 Monday: The Dow closed UP +167.01 points or +0.38%, the S&P closed UP +40.45 points or +0.67% while the Nasdaq closed UP +190.87 points or +0.98%

  • Indexes closed up while traders looked past the latest U.S. tariff threat

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • None, but the January consumer price index report is due out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by initial weekly jobless claims and the producer price index on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell will also speak before Congress on Tuesday morning.

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats ending with a negative close of 11 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -1.52%, the XBI was down -0.92% while the VIX was down -0.73 points or -1.41% at 15.81

 

Q1/25 – February – 5 negative and 5 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing UP (10 of 20)

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$6,23),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.79 after Thursday’s +$0.30, Wednesday’s +$1.72, Tuesday’s+$0.37 and Monday’s -$0.84),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.07 after Thursday’s +$1.09, Wednesday’s -$0.40, Tuesday’s -$0.90 and Monday’s -$0.73),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.06 after Thursday’s +$0.16, Wednesday’s +$0.30 and Tuesday’s -$0.30),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.93 after Thursday’s -$0.07),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.87 after Thursday’s -$0.34),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.69 after Thursday’s -$0.49 and Wednesday’s -$0.74),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.63 after Thursday’s +$0.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.53 after Tuesday’s +$0.81),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.28 after Thursday’s +$0.83, Wednesday’s -$1.49, Tuesday’s -$1.31 and Monday’s +$0.30),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.245),

Flat (4)

  • Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (11 of 11): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.44 after Thursday’s -$1.53, Wednesday’s -$3.03, Tuesday’s -$4.89 and Monday’s -$2.13),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.26 after Thursday’s -$8.55, Wednesday’s +$1.99, Tuesday’s -$2.33 and Monday’s -$0.98),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.03 after Thursday’s -$0.05, Wednesday’s -$0.15, Tuesday’s -$1.13 and Monday’s -$0.57),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.53 after Thursday’s -$0.03 and Wednesday’s +$0.30),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.15 after Thursday’s -$0.15 and Thursday’s -$0.03),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.305),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.06 after Thursday’s +$0.42 after Wednesday’s -$0.04),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.04),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.02),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.02),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.01)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Friday and Thursday followed Wednesday’s positive close, after Tuesday, Monday,negative closes ...

  • Last Friday and Thursday closed negative session after last Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending the previous Monday's negative close.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”.

Theme of the day:

  • American Association of Individual Investors are bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 6 month. Pessimism rose to 47.3% in the survey, from 42.9% last week and the most since 50.3% in late 2023.The historical average for bearishness is 31.0%.

Moderna (MRNA) shares dropped more than 4% after the vaccine maker reported mixed quarterly results.

  • The Q4/24 revenue of $966 million beat an LSEG estimate of $942.8 million. However, Moderna lost $2.91 per share during the period, marking a steeper loss than the $2.68 per share analysts had penciled in.
  • MRNA kept its 2025 product sales guidance intact in a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. <Fred Imbert, CNVC>
  • I am a MRNA fan!

Thank the lord:

  • The Department of Homeland Security says it has taken back $59 million in FEMA funds earmarked for hotels housing migrants in New York City, a day after it fired those involved in making the payment.

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

I keep reiterating as earnings are about to support my theses … until earnings are finally released ...

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA),
  • Thursday: Moderna (MRNA), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics BEAM)
  • Tuesday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Beam Therapeutics BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and uniQure NV (QURE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.